This decoupling is not a coincidence; it may be the beginning of a trend:

BTC is not part of the market, but rather a backup for the market.

U.S. stocks are falling, but digital currencies are not following?

This may become the norm in the future!

The direct reason for the sharp decline in U.S. stocks is simple: Trump's tariff trade war has officially begun, leading to increased market panic and concerns about a global economic recession. As a result, funds are withdrawing from U.S. stocks and flowing back into U.S. Treasuries and other assets for safety.

To some extent, I believe that the tariff trade is a good thing for us, and we should thank Trump—

Bitcoin is likely undergoing a gradual transformation of its asset identity in this round:

From a highly volatile risk asset to a non-sovereign safe-haven tool, institutional investors will begin to include BTC in their global risk-averse allocation portfolios.

I have said before that this is inevitable,

And the tariff war will accelerate this process!

The sectors most affected by tariffs are trade and technology companies, which directly impact future expectations for the stock market.

However, in times of geopolitical conflict or when the credibility of the dollar is questioned, cryptocurrencies may actually attract capital inflows;

BTC is no longer merely a "substitute for tech stocks" but more like a "financial asset outside the system." Investor confidence in it is gradually becoming independent of U.S. stocks and dollar policies.

Another point to note:

I am only talking about Bitcoin, not digital currencies; altcoins are still high-volatility risk assets, while $BTC is the "new macro asset"!

However—

In the short term, although Bitcoin has shown resilience,

If the global macro environment further deteriorates (such as a surge in U.S. Treasury yields, a rise in the dollar index, or continuous net outflows from ETFs), the crypto market may also face downward pressure;

Additionally, if U.S. stocks continue to worsen and market panic spreads further, crypto assets, as "high beta assets," still carry the risk of further declines.

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