Top Ten Trends to Watch in 2025
From the Editor's Letter of The Economist's "The World Ahead"
November 18, 2024
Written by: Tom Standage, Editor of "The World Ahead 2025"
It seems quite fitting that the United Nations has designated 2025 as the "Year of Quantum Science and Technology." Just like Schrödinger's cat in that famous quantum thought experiment, which is both "alive" and "dead" until the box is opened, 2025 has been in a "superposition" of two entirely different possible states until the results of the U.S. election are revealed. Now that the ballots have been cast, the world knows which version of 2025 is coming: Donald Trump will return to the White House. With uncertainty removed, here are ten themes to watch in the upcoming year.
- America's Choice
Trump's overwhelming victory will impact various aspects such as immigration, defense, the economy, and trade. His "America First" policy will prompt allies and adversaries to reassess their relationships with the U.S. This could lead to a geopolitical reshuffling, heightened tensions, and even the risk of nuclear proliferation.
- Voter Expectations for Change
In the unprecedented wave of elections sweeping the globe in 2024, ruling parties generally performed poorly. Some were ousted (like in the U.S. and the U.K.), some were forced to form coalition governments (like in India and South Africa), and others fell into political cohabitation (like in Taiwan and France). Therefore, 2025 will be a year full of expectations. Can new leaders deliver on their promises? Will the suppressed old faces change? If not, social unrest may follow.
- Broader Turmoil
Trump may force Ukraine to reach an agreement with Russia while granting Israel greater freedom regarding Gaza and Lebanon. The U.S.'s increasingly transactional stance and skepticism towards overseas disputes will encourage the "four sources of chaos"—China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—to create more trouble, and will also stimulate regional powers (like in the Sudan crisis) to intervene more in other countries' affairs. Whether the U.S. will truly take a hard line against China over Taiwan or the South China Sea remains uncertain.
- Worrisome Tariffs
Currently, U.S.-China competition is primarily manifested in a trade war. Trump will impose additional tariffs and restrictions, potentially affecting U.S. allies as well. As protectionism intensifies, Chinese companies are expanding overseas to bypass trade barriers and tap into "Global South" markets. The so-called "decoupling" may just be a facade; from Mexico to Hungary, Chinese companies are accelerating factory construction with other plans in mind.
- Clean Tech Boom
To counter domestic economic weakness, the Chinese government is vigorously promoting the export of solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles. This has sparked a clean technology boom led by China, with the adoption of solar energy and grid storage outpacing predictions. By 2025, the world will begin to see whether greenhouse gas emissions have truly peaked.
- After Inflation
Central banks in wealthy countries have celebrated their victories over inflation. However, Western economies now face a new challenge: how to reduce fiscal deficits—through tax increases, spending cuts, or driving economic growth. Additionally, many countries may need to increase defense budgets. Tough economic choices are on the horizon. In the U.S., Trump's policies may worsen the situation—high import tariffs could stifle growth and reignite inflation.
- The Age Question
The U.S. has just elected the oldest president in history. Leaders around the world are aging, and populations are also aging. Discussions about age limits for political leaders will become more frequent. Meanwhile, China is seeking ways to capitalize on economic opportunities amid global aging. In some Middle Eastern countries, however, there is another dilemma: a surge in young populations but a shortage of job opportunities, increasing the risk of social instability.
- A Critical Moment for AI
This may be the biggest gamble in business history: over $1 trillion is flowing into AI data centers. However, many companies are still unclear on how to practically use artificial intelligence, and adoption rates remain low (even though many employees may be using it secretly). Will investors lose confidence? Or will "agent-based AI systems" become more powerful, and with the advent of AI drugs, will artificial intelligence prove its worth?
- Travel Troubles
Not just goods, but the movement of people will face increasing resistance. Conflicts are disrupting the global airline industry; new border control measures in Europe are causing cracks in the "Schengen Area" integration. Although the rebound against "overtourism" may weaken in 2025, many cities—from Amsterdam to Venice—will still maintain their restrictions.
- Continuous Surprises
From assassination attempts and explosive walkie-talkies to giant rockets caught by "chopsticks," 2024 reminded us to be prepared for the unbelievable. What seemingly bizarre events might come true in 2025? Our "Imagination Cards" section suggests some possibilities, such as: a devastating solar storm, the discovery of lost ancient texts—even another global pandemic.
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