Master's Discussion on Hot Topics:

Last night's non-farm payroll data was actually decent, not scaring the market into chaos, and everyone breathed a sigh of relief. But who would have guessed that the country's countermeasures would hit like a heavy punch, leaving the U.S. stock market stunned? Shortly after, Powell came out to speak, and market sentiment plummeted from head to toe.

We won't dwell on what Powell said; the core message is: Trump's chaotic tariff increases have created a mess, uncertainty is at an all-time high, and inflation is likely to rise. The Federal Reserve originally aimed to bring inflation down to 2%, but it seems even harder now.

The U.S. economic growth is also slowing down. Although it hasn't reached the point of recession, there's no avoiding the downward trend. Many analysis institutions have started predicting an economic downturn, and the Federal Reserve has tacitly acknowledged this trend.

What’s even more disheartening is Powell's repeated emphasis: don’t expect us to cut rates additionally; there will only be two cuts in 2025, and that’s non-negotiable. Trump is getting anxious this time, calling for Powell to cut rates to save the market, but Powell refuses to budge, stating that there will be no cuts until inflation shows a downward trend.

He also skillfully shifted the blame, implying that while there are risks in the economy, Trump has to bear the responsibility. The Federal Reserve is not responsible for cleaning up the mess, nor does it care about the risk market.

In plain terms, it’s a three-no and one-nothing: not responsible for the risk market, not bearing the inflation blame, not denying economic decline, and no additional rate cuts.

As a result, the Nasdaq plummeted 5.82% last night, which was quite tragic. Interestingly, MicroStrategy actually rose 4% against the trend. This explains why Bitcoin didn’t dive along with the U.S. stock market last night but instead rebounded.

But as the saying goes, when the building collapses, no one can expect to pick up the pieces. If one day the U.S. stock market truly crashes, don’t expect the crypto market to hide in a corner and laugh. These two markets are like an older brother and a younger brother; when the older brother catches a cold, the younger brother will definitely cough and sneeze along.

At this point, some analysts will surely come out and say that the implementation of tariff policies means all the bad news is out, and the market will rise. The Master can only say that’s too naive; the logic doesn’t hold. The implementation of tariffs is not the end but a signal that the trade war has begun.

Countries subjected to tariffs will definitely retaliate, causing mutual harm; it’s all a clear operation. For the global economy, this is a significant negative, so where does the market get the confidence to rise?

Of course, some will ask why Bitcoin hasn’t crashed yet when the U.S. stock market is on the verge of a circuit breaker. It’s simple; it’s holding on. If there’s a rebound now, it would be too fake.

Now, reflecting on March 12, the U.S. stock market first hit a circuit breaker while Bitcoin was still pretending to be calm, and then a few days later, it plummeted, after which the Federal Reserve loosened its policies. Now liquidity is tight again, financial products are suffering, and everyone is afraid Bitcoin will follow suit.

Master's Trend Analysis:

Resistance Levels:

First Resistance Level: 84700

Second Resistance Level: 84000

Support Levels:

First Support Level: 83300

Second Support Level: 82500

Today's Suggestions:

Although Bitcoin has temporarily deviated from its upward trend, it has maintained the previous low point below the trend line, so a rebound viewpoint can be sustained in the short term. The current high point area of 84K overlaps with psychological resistance, so it can be set as short-term resistance.

If this area is broken again, the short-term high will continue to refresh, and the probability of further increases will rise. While maintaining the rebound trend, the area around 84.7~85K, where yesterday's moving averages converged, is strong resistance. To sustain an upward trend, this area must be broken.

Over the weekend, it is advisable to pay attention to the box range of 83.3~84K and to enter short-term trades in the pullback area. The maximum pullback area is 82.5K and the rising trend line, and short-term entries can be attempted at the second support level.

Since the weekend may continue to consolidate, it is advisable to plan to enter within the box range of 83~84K and to look for rebound opportunities near the rising trend line in the downward area.

4.5 Master's Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

Short Entry Reference: Light short in the range of 84700-85300, Target: 83300-82500

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