Ethereum’s ( ETH) performance since the start of 2025 has been lackluster compared to bitcoin ( BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market. After beginning the year trading above $3,300, ETH declined, reaching a low of $1,805.40 as of April 4, 2025. In contrast, bitcoin ( BTC), which rallied from under $69,000 on Nov. 5, 2024, to peak at just over $109,000 on Jan. 20, 2025, was down by approximately 10%, compared to ETH’s 45%.
This divergence in performance has led to frustration among ETH holders and fans, who expected the cryptocurrency to outshine or at least match BTC’s growth. However, some experts remain bullish on ETH’s long-term prospects. They predict ETH potentially reaching $5,000 by the end of 2025, and some even see it surpassing $10,000 in the near future.
The experts point to ongoing ecosystem upgrades, including the upcoming Pectra upgrade, as factors likely to kickstart a rebound that could see ETH eventually matching BTC’s strong performance. Still, some ETH holders and supporters continue to vent about the ETH price decline, which they attribute to both a lack of progress and the Ethereum team’s perceived failure to stem the regression. However, Ethereum proponents push back against this narrative, arguing that it ignores the real work being done to improve the protocol.
Alex Loktev, CRO at P2P.org, acknowledges the frustration surrounding ethereum’s recent price performance, but attributes it to the network’s focus on foundational development rather than hype-driven narratives. He argues that Ethereum’s shift to Proof-of-Stake (PoS), the implementation of EIP-1559, and the build-out of its Layer-2 ecosystem, while not immediately impacting price, are crucial for long-term stability and scalability.
Loktev notes that other crypto or related assets such as bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF), artificial intelligence (AI) tokens, and memecoins have captured market attention. This has left Ethereum to work on its infrastructure. However, he remains cautiously optimistic for 2025, anticipating positive impacts from the Pectra upgrade, potential ETH ETFs with staking, and a maturing Layer-2 ecosystem. He believes ETH could surpass previous highs with favorable market conditions.
With respect to the Pectra upgrade, Loktev said this change promises to reshape the landscape of staking and potentially inject renewed vigor into the Ethereum ecosystem. In fact, Loktev sees the Pectra upgrade as a crucial step in strengthening Ethereum’s economic foundation. The upgrade, he argues, makes staking significantly safer.
“Look at the numbers – slashing penalties dropping by up to 128x makes staking dramatically safer. For institutional money that’s been sitting on the sidelines, worried about tail risk, this removes a major barrier. Combined with auto-compounding, we’ve got a seriously improved staking proposition,” Loktev stated.
Furthermore, the Pectra upgrade, slated for April 30, is said to introduce auto-compounding, enhancing the overall staking proposition. Loktev anticipates the staking ratio, currently around 31%, to climb towards 40-45% within the next year or two from the upgrade. Although the upgrade alone may not immediately “pump” ETH’s price, Loktev believes it will strengthen Ethereum’s economic fundamentals by locking up more supply and creating increased yield opportunities within the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector.
By addressing concerns surrounding staking risks and enhancing yield opportunities, the upgrade could pave the way for increased institutional adoption and a more robust Ethereum ecosystem.
Meanwhile, Loktev claims the upgrade, which increases validators with Maximum Effective Balances (MEB) from 32 to up to 2048 ETH, is poised to bring significant operational efficiencies and risk reductions to the network. While some might question the impact on decentralization, Loktev argues that this move addresses crucial practicalities for validator operators.
He highlights the operational burden of running numerous smaller validators. He said: “Running 64 validators instead of one means 64 times the infrastructure complexity, 64 times the monitoring overhead, and 64 times the potential points of failure.”
Beyond operational benefits, Loktev points to the significant advantages for everyday stakers. The introduction of auto-compounding allows consensus layer rewards, which constitute about 75% of total staking returns, to automatically grow validator balances, effectively providing compound interest without manual intervention.
Furthermore, Pectra upgrade dramatically improves the risk profile for validators. Loktev notes that under the current system, a “simple technical hiccup” can result in a 3.28% loss of stake. Post-Pectra, this risk is reduced to a mere 0.19%, representing a 17x reduction in risk exposure.
Looking ahead to 2030, Loktev predicts significant potential for Ethereum, provided the network successfully executes its roadmap and PoS remains effective. He emphasizes that Ethereum’s growing role as essential infrastructure for the digital economy is the key trend to watch, rather than short-term price fluctuations. Loktev concludes that Ethereum’s future success hinges on its ability to scale through Layer-2 solutions and maintain its position as a leading platform for decentralized applications.
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