Recently, friends have asked us whether the drop in gold prices indicates that it has peaked. We would like to share some key insights based on long-term data regarding gold:

First, the monthly reports from the World Gold Council, which summarize the data and situation of global central bank gold purchases. We should pay special attention to the core driving force behind the recent rise in gold prices, which is the People's Bank of China (Figure 1 shows the gold data for February 📊).

Second, the COMEX gold inventory reflects traders' expectations for future gold price increases, leading them to actively increase their inventory, which in turn drives up gold prices. Recently, a large number of physical gold buyers from Asia and the Middle East have caused gold to be redirected from other markets to COMEX for delivery. This is different from the previous logic where rising inventory led to falling gold prices.

Both of these data points can be accessed through public market queries. Here are the two links:

World Gold Council: https://www.gold.org/goldhub

COMEX Gold Inventory: https://sc.macromicro.me/series/17518/gold-comex-warehouse-stock

We hope this information is helpful to everyone. Grateful 🙏

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