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U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies will cause global macroeconomic turmoil and a short-term financial crisis, ultimately leading to a broader adoption of Bitcoin as a store of value asset, said Bitwise analyst Jeff Park.

Park believes that the economic instability brought about by the trade war will lead governments to adopt inflationary fiscal and monetary policies, further weakening the value of currencies and prompting a global shift towards alternative stores of value like Bitcoin.

The analyst concluded that the increased demand for BTC will drive significant long-term price increases. In a post on platform X on February 2, Park predicted the direct impacts of the trade war:

"The cost of tariffs will likely be shared by the U.S. and its trading partners through higher inflation, but the relative impact will be heavier on foreign countries. These nations will have to find ways to cope with their sluggish growth issues."

According to Park, while the increased demand for Bitcoin as a store of value against rapidly depreciating fiat currencies will drive BTC prices up in the long term, global financial markets will feel the short-term pain and wealth loss caused by the trade war.

Bitcoin experienced a short-term price shock in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, subsequently reaching an all-time high during the 2020-2021 bull market. Source: TradingView

Economist and hedge fund manager Ray Dalio wrote in a post on X on April 2 that tariffs have a stagflationary effect on the entire world. Dalio added that tariffs tend to have a deflationary effect on producers of the taxed goods, while having an inflationary effect on the importing countries.

He concluded that debt levels and trade imbalances will ultimately lead to a change in the global financial landscape, altering the established monetary order.

After the Trump administration implemented comprehensive trade tariffs, the U.S. stock market experienced severe sell-offs. Source: TradingView

Nic Puckrin, founder and market analyst at Coin Bureau, stated in an interview with Cointelegraph that if these trade tariffs indeed lead to a large-scale trade war, it would be very bad for the entire world.

The analyst noted that under the prolonged concerns of trade wars and the macroeconomic uncertainty brought about by protectionist trade policies, the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. economy by 2025 is 40%.

Asset manager Anthony Pompliano recently speculated that the U.S. president is deliberately hitting the capital markets to force interest rate cuts and reduce the repayment costs of U.S. Treasury bonds.

Since the beginning of Trump's second term, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has decreased. Source: TradingView

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has fallen from about 4.66% in January to the current 4.00%.

Pompliano also concluded that while the current U.S. government policies will cause short-term pain, the effects of lower interest rates will encourage borrowing and drive the prices of risk assets higher in the long term.

Related: Billionaire investor says he "wouldn't be surprised" if Trump delays tariffs.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trade involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.

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