Although both Bitcoin and US stocks are currently declining, I still feel that US stocks will rebound in the next two days, though it is possible that my thoughts could be wrong.

The reason is that the tariffs announced on April 2nd are already the worst-case scenario. Excluding China, many countries have started negotiating tariff issues with US stocks since April 2nd. According to data from the White House as of last Friday, over 50 countries (regions) have begun negotiations.

On Monday, we also saw many countries in Asia mobilizing, including Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, and India, all of which have new tariff policies. These are not retaliatory measures but rather alignments with US tariffs or investments. Therefore, I personally believe that the worst-case scenario should not be as bad as what was announced on April 2nd.

Thus, the upcoming tariff data should be better than that of April 2nd, and even China is not completely without negotiation possibilities. The 20% on "fentanyl" is not without opportunity. As for today's decline, it is likely a result of last week's tariffs and Powell's speech, compounded by the Qingming Festival holiday, which did not give the Chinese stock market enough time to react. The drop at the market open today should reflect that.

Especially as we approach April 9th (April 10th Beijing time), there is a chance for a rebound. Of course, I must reiterate that I could be wrong, and even if there is a rebound, it would only be a rebound; the conditions for a reversal are not yet sufficient.

Another reason is that US Treasury yields have started to rebound across the board, and the VIX has exceeded 50. The last time it reached this level was in August 2024, and the time before that was in March 2020. However, this does not necessarily mean a rebound is imminent; the panic sentiment still needs to be vented.

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