Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Overnight, people suddenly woke up: after the Trump administration initiated the tariff trade war, the U.S. stock market has lost over $6 trillion in value, and the total market value of cryptocurrencies has dropped nearly 10% in a single day. On the other hand, Peter Navarro, a senior trade advisor to the Trump administration, previously stated in a media interview that the U.S. stock market will ultimately see a "full recovery," and "the most important rule is, especially for retail investors, is that—unless you sell your stocks, you won't lose money. The wise strategy now is to not panic and hold on." Who is this person? Why does he dare to make such bold statements in the face of a market crash?
With such questions in mind, Odaily Planet Daily will take readers closer to Peter Navarro, the American economist known as the "chief architect of the Trump administration's tariff trade war," to glimpse the hidden information behind his statements.
The academic failure and political success of the internet-famous economist
Public information shows that Peter Navarro has two obvious labels:
One is his academic identity; he was previously a professor of economics and public policy at the Paul Merage School of Business at the University of California, Irvine (UCI) and is now honorably retired.
The second is his political identity; he was a member of Trump’s first administration (2016-2020), initially serving as the director of the White House National Trade Council and later as the director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy.
In addition, Peter Navarro has run for public office five times in San Diego, California, but has been unsuccessful each time (Note from Odaily Planet Daily: Interestingly, there are rumors that one of his campaign failures was due to traffic congestion, causing him to miss the election).
While pursuing his Ph.D. in economics at Harvard University, he wrote a book titled "The Policy Game: How Special Interest Groups and Ideologues Are Stealing America," claiming that special interest groups are leading the U.S. to "historical moments of stagnation and lack of prosperity." In the book, he also called for increased worker compensation to help those unemployed due to trade and foreign competition. His doctoral dissertation on "Why Business Corporations Donate to Charity" is one of his frequently cited papers. Due to his continuous advocacy for anti-globalization and trade war policies, other economists often regard his academic views as marginal, which laid the groundwork for his 20 years of teaching in obscurity.
Moreover, as a strong supporter of reducing the U.S. trade deficit, Peter Navarro is known for his hardline stance against China. As early as 2006, he wrote a book titled "The Coming China Wars," examining China as an emerging world power and arguing that while facing challenges domestically and internationally, it is striving to showcase itself in the global market. In the book, he also discusses China's role in international trade and the various conflicts arising with countries around the world over issues such as energy, natural resources, the environment, and intellectual property.
In 2011, he co-authored a book titled "Death by China" with U.S. space policy expert Greg Autry, arguing that China violates fair trade by "illegally subsidizing exports and manipulating its currency to dump goods in the U.S. market," making it impossible for American companies to compete. He called for expanding U.S. manufacturing, imposing high tariffs, and "bringing the global supply chain back home."
Meme: Trump-style "technical adjustment"
It was this series of "internet-famous exaggerated statements" and published books that caught the attention of Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, who was then looking for economic advisors for Trump’s first presidential campaign, and coincidentally, the book "Death by China" on Amazon provided him with an excellent "candidate opportunity."
It is worth mentioning that Peter Navarro's political affiliation and policy stance are "highly controversial, even crossing the entire political spectrum"—between 1981 and 2016, he has jumped between the Republican Party, independents, and Democrats; even in the early days of Trump’s first administration, he was considered a Democrat, but by February 2018, he re-registered as a Republican.
Under his influence, the Trump administration made a series of "bold moves," including the U.S.-China trade war, encouraging Trump to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and pushing for tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
A second spring of political life: Peter Navarro returns to the Trump administration
In January 2025, Peter Navarro was appointed as a senior advisor on trade and manufacturing for President Trump’s second term, thus reigniting a new round of "tariff trade war" rhetoric.
This, of course, is inseparable from his previous "loyal acts"—
In 2020, Navarro attempted to overturn the presidential election results through "election fraud conspiracy theories";
In February 2022, he was subpoenaed by Congress twice and was referred to the U.S. Department of Justice for refusing to cooperate; in 2022, a grand jury indicted him on two counts of contempt of Congress;
In 2023, he was ultimately convicted on two counts, and in 2024, Navarro was sentenced to four months in prison, becoming the first former White House official to be imprisoned for contempt of Congress.
It was this series of "die-hard operations" that led to his absorption into the "Project 2025" initiative after Trump took office in January this year (Note from Odaily Planet Daily: This is the 2025 presidential transition project, a political initiative aimed at reshaping the U.S. federal government in favor of right-wing policies), and he was once again entrusted with an important advisory role, making him one of the few "returning members" of the Trump administration.
Frequent bold moves: Academic fraud creates a "shadow self"
Such a seemingly professional and authoritative economics professor who mindlessly advocates for the tariff trade war undoubtedly raises questions about his professional level, and upon further investigation, we find that Navarro can be considered a habitual offender of academic fraud.
In his six published books about China, Navarro cited a character named "Ron Vara," describing him as a hawkish figure on China and a former Harvard Ph.D. student, claiming that his statements about China and the Chinese people are filled with anti-China sentiment, such as "You must be crazy to eat Chinese food" and "Only the Chinese can turn a leather sofa into a sour bath, a crib into a deadly weapon, and a phone battery into shrapnel that pierces the heart."
Subsequently, an investigation by the Chronicle of Higher Education found that such a character does not exist, and Ron Vara (a homophone of Navarro) seems to represent Navarro's own views. Ultimately, Navarro admitted to fabricating this character and citing his statements in his book for endorsement. This incident was also confirmed by The New York Times.
American joke: I quote myself
And this is not the first time he has made numerous unreliable economic statements.
In 2016, when informed that the Tax Policy Center's assessment of the "Trump Economic Plan," co-authored by Navarro and others, stated that the plan would reduce federal revenue by $600 billion and lower economic growth in the long term, he claimed that such analysis showed "highly analytical and political misconduct." When the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that the "Trump Economic Plan" would cause millions of Americans to lose their jobs, he stated that the authors at the Peterson Institute "wove a false narrative and fabricated some false numbers." According to MIT economist Simon Johnson, the predictions in his economic plan paper written during Trump’s campaign were "based on such unrealistic assumptions that they seemed to come from another planet. If the U.S. really adopted the Trump plan, the result would be an immediate and unavoidable disaster."
When 370 economists, including 19 Nobel laureates, signed a letter in November 2016 warning against Trump’s economic policies, Navarro stated that the letter was "a disgrace from the offshore outsourcing faction of the economics community that insists bad trade agreements are beneficial to the U.S."
This also explains why he has faced criticism and even strong hostility from mainstream economists.
Additionally, according to a self-identified student of Navarro, X platform user @MikeZiav59604 stated: "I can responsibly tell you that he has economic theories, but he completely doesn't understand economics, let alone business; he's just a bookworm. And calling his theories right-wing is simply a joke. This person's theories are extreme left, 100% planned economy."
In this light, the Trump administration's decision to achieve low inflation through high tariffs can be attributed to Navarro's significant influence.
Under the guidance of such a "seemingly knowledgeable about China, but in fact an academic fraudster," can the U.S. government promote a reduction in Federal Reserve interest rates and lower U.S. inflation? The answer will emerge after various struggles.
Recommended listening:
“Daily Interview with the Chief Architect of the Trump Trade War, Navarro”
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