The incident on Monday reminded people of the fake news surrounding BlackRock's spot ETF. Although the news was debunked, the market reacted unusually robustly, with $BTC and U.S. stocks maintaining high levels, indicating that investors still hold hope for a relief in tariff policies.

This once again proves that while liquidity is poor, there are still funds waiting for signals to enter the market. U.S. stocks saw nearly $2 trillion in trading volume within 15 minutes, and BTC surged over $4,000 in a short time, showing that cautious funds are ready to jump in at any moment. In other words, as long as there is even a slight easing in macro or policy conditions, buying pressure can explode.

However, the real challenge lies not in the incident or tariffs, but in the upcoming GDP data. If it truly is -2.8%, then a further 20% drop in U.S. stocks wouldn't be surprising. Even today, BlackRock's CEO believes that the U.S. "may have already entered a recession."

The market's panic response is also reflected in the VIX: today, the VIX broke 60 intraday, the last time being in August 2024 (65.73), and before that, it was in March 2020 (which reached 85 during the pandemic). A VIX above 50 can almost be seen as the starting point of a technical bear market.

On the BTC blockchain data, we can also see structural differentiation. The panic mainly comes from new funds that failed to bottom out in the past two days, while long-term holders have shown little action, even when facing unrealized losses, they are still observing. This indicates that at this stage, it is not easy to force long-term investors to capitulate through price declines.

After the incident, U.S. stocks have begun to recover comprehensively, and market sentiment is slowly improving, but the premise is that we are only discussing "tariffs." If we talk about "recession" or even "consecutive negative growth," that would be a deeper source of risk.

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