US President Donald Trump has once again stirred global markets with his tariff policy. His latest announcement of a "90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs" has provided a brief respite for the market while also drawing significant attention from the financial and political sectors. Although US stocks and the cryptocurrency market rebounded after the news was released, traditional financial analysts, politicians, and experts in the crypto field expressed starkly different views. Most observers pointed out that this "suspension" policy has not truly eliminated uncertainty; rather, it may sow more chaos in the market and is seen as a political expedient rather than a well-considered economic decision.
Trump's Tariff "Suspension": Undercurrents Amid a Brief Market Rebound
The Trump administration recently announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs (excluding China), which quickly triggered a market reaction. The Nasdaq index surged 8% within 20 minutes of the announcement, and Bitcoin's price briefly broke through the $83,000 mark. However, this rapid rebound did not fully ease analysts' concerns. On the contrary, they generally believe this is merely a "small breather" amid long-term uncertainty, rather than a fundamental resolution to the issues at hand.
US Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer was quick to criticize this policy. He stated, "The chaos under Trump's leadership is like a child's play; he changes his mind every day, and his advisors are arguing with each other. We cannot accept such a chaotic cabinet to govern the country." Schumer likened Trump's tariff strategy to a "red light-green light game," sometimes threatening the economy with a "red light" and at other times giving a brief "green light." He warned that this erratic policy not only undermines the government's credibility but also leaves businesses and investors at a loss.
Meanwhile, John Canavan, chief analyst at Oxford Economics in New York, analyzed the ambiguity in Trump's wording from a technical perspective. He stated, "From Trump's public statements, we cannot fully determine whether this is a true 'suspension' or merely a reduction of reciprocal tariffs to 10%. Regardless, this decision clearly abandons some of the most extreme tariff threats previously made, which is a short-term positive for risk assets." However, he also pointed out that this policy has not dispelled the cloud of uncertainty, "because tariff levels seem to change daily, and the market remains in a state of high watchfulness."
Cautious Optimism and Deep Concerns in Traditional Finance
Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, admitted that this suspension was "absolutely unexpected." He recalled that the US government had previously insisted that tariffs were non-negotiable, and now suddenly backtracking was surprising. "This triggered a wave of understandable relief-driven rebound, but we have to wonder whether tariffs will return after 90 days." Sosnick believes this uncertainty will hinder businesses from making long-term plans and may even affect current quarterly performance guidance, "Uncertainty has decreased, but it is far from gone."
FX Executive Director Amarjit Sahota was more direct in criticizing this decision. He stated, "A 90-day suspension will only bring more uncertainty; it looks like a very poor policy decision, or at least poorly planned and executed." Sahota questioned what problems such a short-term "suspension" could actually solve, suggesting it might keep the market in a state of anxiety for the next 90 days. He warned that such policy fluctuations could further amplify the volatility of the stock market and other assets.
Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide Investment Management Group, raised warnings from the perspective of market health. He acknowledged that the suspension of tariffs is "absolutely good news," indicating that negotiations have progressed to a certain extent, but also pointed out, "An 8% rise in the Nasdaq in 20 minutes is not much healthier than an 8% drop." He believes that such extreme volatility reflects the market's excessive sensitivity to tariff news rather than a genuine improvement in fundamentals, "I am being very cautious right now."
The Outlook for the Crypto Market: Opportunities and Risks Coexist
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, noted that Trump's tariff "suspension" was not the response he expected, but he remains focused on possible countermeasures from China. He advised investors to closely monitor the People's Bank of China's adjustments to the yuan's exchange rate this Thursday, believing it could be a key signal for assessing the next steps. "Whether China will retaliate remains a suspense, and the yuan's exchange rate may become a market barometer," Hayes wrote.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez stated from a technical perspective that Bitcoin is currently breaking out of a consolidation range, and if it can hold the support level of $80,700, it may aim for $84,000 or even $87,000. He believes that the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies may drive funds into safe-haven assets, and Bitcoin's properties as "digital gold" may benefit.
Analysts from the blockchain analysis platform Santiment took a more neutral stance. They pointed out that while the suspension of tariffs temporarily alleviated market tension, it is merely a "temporary relief from ongoing issues." They reviewed the market fluctuations over the past 48 hours—first triggered by a false report of tariff suspension leading to a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" reaction, followed by the US announcing tariffs of up to 104% on Chinese goods, which caused market sentiment to plummet. Santiment believes that the current fundamentals remain unclear, and the market is more driven by greed and fear, "The excessive reaction to tariff news has become a signal worth noting."
The head of Grayscale Research stated, "Tariffs have brought about stagflation shocks, which are typically unfavorable for traditional assets but may be beneficial for scarce goods like gold—even Bitcoin." He analyzed that if tariff policies continue to ferment, it could lead to a coexistence of economic growth slowdown and inflation, further highlighting Bitcoin's appeal as an anti-inflation asset.
Analysts' Consensus: Uncertainty Remains the Main Theme
In summary, although Trump's tariff "suspension" policy has boosted market sentiment in the short term, analysts generally believe it has not truly eliminated uncertainty and may instead lay the groundwork for future chaos. From Schumer's political criticism to the cautious analyses of Canavan, Sosnick, and other traditional financial experts, as well as the outlooks of Hayes, Martinez, and other authorities in the crypto field, a common conclusion is that Trump's unpredictability makes it difficult for the market to find a stable footing.
Notably, the US's previous decision to impose a 104% tariff on Chinese goods stands in stark contrast to this "suspension" policy. This "red light-green light" switch in policy not only complicates corporate planning but also leaves investors filled with doubts about the direction of the next 90 days. As Sahota stated, "A 90-day suspension will only bring more uncertainty." Hackett also reminded that extreme market volatility is not a healthy signal, and investors need to remain highly vigilant.
Conclusion: How Long Will Trump's "Tariff Show" Continue?
Trump's tariff policy has been known for its unpredictability since he took office, and this "suspension" is just another manifestation of his "stirring things up" style. From political maneuvering to economic pressure, each of his steps seems to test the limits of the market and his opponents. However, as various authorities have pointed out, such erratic operations may bring short-term effects but cannot mask the hidden dangers posed by long-term uncertainty. The next 90 days are bound to be spent in observation and volatility in the global market, and how Trump's next move will impact the world economic landscape remains an unknown.
This article represents the author's personal views and does not reflect the stance or views of this platform. This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.
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