Just now, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, who is more dovish compared to other Federal Reserve officials, expressed his views on Trump's tariff policy. He believes that:

1. If U.S. tariffs remain at an average of 25% for a long time, core PCE could rise to 4% to 5% (currently at 2.8%). Whether businesses can pass on costs to consumers is key to determining the extent of inflation's upward movement. Although the impact on overall inflation is short-term and can be ignored by the Federal Reserve, the subsequent effects on the economy could be significant, with a substantial possibility of pushing the economy downward. If this leads to a recession, Waller would support earlier and faster interest rate cuts.

He feels that as the economy slows rapidly, even if the inflation rate is well above 2%, the risk of a recession is expected to outweigh the risk of inflation escalating.

2. If U.S. tariffs are lower, the impact on inflation would be much smaller, with expectations that the peak could return to 3%. This scenario would exert less pressure on inflation and reduce the risk of a recession.

At this point, if the Federal Reserve still believes inflation can return to 2%, Waller supports interest rate cuts in the second half of the year.

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