Today, the risk market rebounded overall. Although it was hindered by Lutnick and did not meet expectations, the news of tariff suspensions and Trump's late-night consideration of adjusting tariffs on automobiles and auto parts significantly boosted market sentiment. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4.4%, and the VIX retreated to around 30.
Trump released information that tariffs on imported cars might be adjusted, enhancing market expectations for a subsequent easing path. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve's Waller stated that if the average tariff remains at 25%, the probability of an economic recession increases significantly, supporting rapid interest rate cuts; if it is only 10%, then a wait-and-see approach will be maintained, considering rate cuts only when inflation clearly falls back to a 2% path.
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