Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"
After consecutive declines of 17.39% in February and 2.3% in March, Bitcoin performed well in the second quarter, with an April return of 3.77%. Although Bitcoin's price hit an annual low of $74,500, it is currently closer to $90,000 rather than a new range bottom.
Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The market structure of Bitcoin in higher time frames (HTF) has achieved its first breakthrough since 2025, injecting strong bullish momentum into optimistic expectations. However, several factors may limit BTC's gains in the next two weeks, with prices likely to hover around $90,000.
Bitcoin needs support from spot trading volume, not just leverage-driven movements.
Cointelegraph observed that as the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio dropped by 50%, the futures market has entered a cooling period. While the deleveraging in the futures market is a positive sign in the long run, derivative traders still dominate the market direction.
Cumulative net selling volume of Bitcoin. Source: X.com
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that the cumulative net buy orders for Bitcoin surged to $800 million on April 11, indicating an influx of aggressive buying. Bitcoin's price also skyrocketed from $78,000 to $85,000 within three days, confirming the historical pattern that high net buy orders trigger price increases.
Similarly, CryptoQuant's community analyst Maartunn confirmed that the current uptrend is "leverage-driven." The reason for this discrepancy is that retail or spot traders are still not that significant.
Bitcoin's 30-day apparent demand. Source: CryptoQuant
As shown in the chart, Bitcoin's apparent demand is showing signs of recovery but has not turned into net positive values. Historical data shows that when BTC reaches local lows, the 30-day apparent demand often consolidates sideways for an extended period, leading to price stagnation in the cryptocurrency market.
Therefore, without a combined buying force from the spot and futures markets, the likelihood of Bitcoin attempting to break through the $90,000 mark after a nearly 20% pullback is low. Notably, there is a large-scale liquidation cluster in the $80,000 to $90,000 range—according to CoinGlass data, based on a reference price of $85,100, if BTC's price reaches $90,035, the cumulative short positions facing liquidation could amount to $6.5 billion, which may become a "trap area" enticing traders to enter.
Bitcoin exchange liquidation chart. Source: CoinGlass
On the other hand, if Bitcoin drops to $80,071, long positions worth $4.86 billion will face forced liquidation. While these liquidation clusters do not determine market direction, they may trigger a double whammy for both bulls and bears, enticing traders to gamble in both directions.
Given the large-scale risk capital below $90,000, Bitcoin's price is likely to test various liquidation dense areas before establishing a major trend.
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This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
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