Analysis of the Current Situation of Memecoins: Market Sentiment is Low but Data Remains Good

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4 hours ago

Author: Nico, Crypto KOL

Compiled by: Felix, PANews

Recently, many people on social media have claimed that Memecoin is "dead."

The trading volume of Memecoin is not as high as it was in previous months, and Trump Coin ($TRUMP) has undoubtedly reached a local peak in terms of recognition, trading volume, and liquidity appeal within the Memecoin space.

However, at that time, SOL was at a high of $290, and BTC was over $100,000, with the bull market in full swing. Since then, the BTC price has fallen back to between $74,000 and $88,000, while SOL hit a local low of $95. However, SOL has now surpassed $140 (a 46% increase in just 15 days), and BTC has also risen back above $90,000. Let's reassess the current situation.

Analysis of the Current State of Memecoin: Market Sentiment is Low but Data is Still Good

Despite the low price of SOL, the market is generally bearish and sentiment is low, but the data presents a different picture. Here are the figures from April so far:

Pump.fun has generated approximately $650 million in revenue to date. Daily revenue in April ranged from $1 million to $2.7 million, averaging in the higher range of $1.5 million to $2 million.

Analysis of the Current State of Memecoin: Market Sentiment is Low but Data is Still Good

As SOL prices rise and trading volume declines during the Trump event, trading volume in April has begun to rebound significantly. With the launch of Pumpswap and nearly instant migration, the trading experience has become smoother. This can be seen in the increase in total weekly trading volume.

Related Reading: From Former Allies to Rivals: A Data Perspective on the Nature of the "Civil War" Between Pump.fun and Raydium

Analysis of the Current State of Memecoin: Market Sentiment is Low but Data is Still Good

So far, 9.7 million tokens have been created, with 20,000 to 40,000 tokens launched daily in April, and 100 to 350 tokens graduating each day (graduation rate of 0.4% to 0.8%).

Analysis of the Current State of Memecoin: Market Sentiment is Low but Data is Still Good

Over time, the decline in graduation rates is related to the decrease in user numbers and trading volume, indicating a higher proportion of peer-to-peer (PvP) trading behavior amid fierce competition. Small groups hoard supplies when new projects launch, undercut each other, and when they cannot attract the additional liquidity needed for bound tokens, they decide to exit early.

Analysis of the Current State of Memecoin: Market Sentiment is Low but Data is Still Good

Active Users

During the peak period from December 2024 to February 2025, the average daily trading users of Pump.fun Memecoins reached between 200,000 and 400,000. Since then, there has been a downward trend, remaining below 200,000 for the past two months.

Currently, the number of daily active wallets is stable at around 150,000, with the number of existing/reused wallets and new wallets being roughly equal. It is important to note that most miners trade across multiple wallets and will at least occasionally switch active wallets.

Analysis of the Current State of Memecoin: Market Sentiment is Low but Data is Still Good

Trading Bot Data

It is well known that most Memecoin trading activity occurs on the top five platforms, such as Axiom, BullX, Photon, GMGN, and Trojan. The specifics are as follows:

Platform | Daily Active Users (DAU) | Daily Trading Volume | Daily Trade Count

Axiom: 17,000-30,000 DAU | Daily Trading $20-33 million | Daily Trades 700,000-1.5 million

Bullx: 20,000-30,000 DAU | Daily Trading $20-33 million | Daily Trades 200,000-400,000

Photon: 18,000-27,000 DAU | Daily Trading $30-50 million | Daily Trades 250,000-350,000

GMGN: 10,000-18,000 DAU | Daily Trading $8-20 million | Daily Trades 180,000-290,000

Trojan: 14,000-25,000 DAU | Daily Trading $7-30 million | Daily Trades about 200,000

This roughly aligns with the observed situation, adding approximately 100,000+ users and over $100 million in daily trading volume.

Lifetime Fees and Asset Management Scale (SOL on the platform)

Bullx: $186 million | Managed Assets: 215,000 SOL approximately $30 million

Axiom: $39 million | Managed Assets: Unknown, but estimated to be similar to Bullx, possibly slightly lower

Photon: $382 million | Managed Assets: 539,000 SOL approximately $82.6 million

GMGN: $66 million fees | Managed Assets: Unknown, but estimated to be at least half of Bullx.

The circulating liquid SOL value in the Memecoin space across relevant and other platforms may exceed $200 million.

PumpSwap

Pumpswap's daily trading volume ranges from $300 million to $480 million, accounting for 9% to 19% of Solana's decentralized exchange trading volume. Since all new Pump.fun tokens are issued and traded on Pumpswap, this means a significant amount of trading still occurs on early issuance tokens traded through Raydium/Meteora.

Analysis of the Current State of Memecoin: Market Sentiment is Low but Data is Still Good

The launch of Pumpswap was a wise move by the Pumpfun team, who charge a 0.25% fee, with 0.02% allocated to liquidity providers (LP) and 0.05% allocated to the protocol.

In the first month after launch, Pumpswap generated approximately $25 million in total fees (daily $100,000 to $240,000), with LPs receiving about $20 million and the remaining $5 million allocated to the protocol.

As Pumpswap's market share expands (which has been steadily increasing), this figure is expected to continue growing, as people tend to trade new tokens rather than old ones.

Prioritizing trading new coins aligns with how the Memecoin space will continue to evolve. The recent competition in the Memecoin space has become increasingly fierce, and it is no secret that the remaining active participants are all "battle-hardened veterans" who have held their ground during the tough times of declining SOL prices, trading volume, and users.

The Memecoin space relies on new liquidity brought in by new users, initially coming from those calmer crypto investors/industry participants who "surrender" due to the continuous devaluation of the altcoins they hold, seeking faster returns instead.

As the entire market continues to grow, retail investors are also starting to get involved.

Players have grown weary of DeFi tokens that require careful management and a deep understanding of protocol design and dynamics. Memecoin remains the preferred tool for speculation, while Solana acts like a casino/dealer. They are easy to understand, have a low barrier to entry, and due to their highly asymmetric upside potential, offer higher returns for new traders. New things happen every day, everything can be tokenized, and the content is infinitely rich: characters, content, events, memes, etc.

Everything is just beginning.

Related Reading: Local Frenzy or Full Recovery? Data Analysis of the Movements of MEME Whales on the Solana Chain and Market Differentiation

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