Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange Bitmex and current principal at crypto investment firm Maelstrom, offered a sweeping macroeconomic critique on April 23, likening President Trump’s aggressive trade policies to a reckless maneuver on a dangerous mountain slope. Hayes drew parallels between avalanche forecasting and financial market risk. “I characterize this chain of events as a policymaker pivot from ‘everything is fine’ to ‘everything is fucked, we must do something’, markets surged, and most importantly, bitcoin bottomed.” He continued: “I’m calling the local bottom at $74,500.”

The essay centers around the market chaos triggered by Trump’s tariff announcement, which Hayes said elevated U.S. bond market volatility to crisis levels, forcing a swift reversal. In response, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a bond buyback program, a move Hayes interprets as stealth monetary easing. With this context, Hayes emphasized the bullish implications for digital assets: “Using this information, we as bitcoin hodlers and crypto degen investors know that the bottom is in because the next time Trump ramps up the Tariff rhetoric or refuses to reduce tariffs on China, bitcoin will rally in anticipation of the monetary mandarins running the money printing press at max Brrrrr levels to ensure bond market volatility remains muted.” He added:

The next time Trump presses the tariff button — which he will do, to ensure nations respect his authority — he will be able to ask for additional concessions, and bitcoin won’t get crushed alongside certain equities.

“Bitcoin knows that the deflationary policies cannot be sustained for long, given the insane levels of current and future debt the filthy financial system requires to operate,” he noted.

Hayes doubled down on his optimism for bitcoin and the broader crypto market, detailing Maelstrom’s aggressive investment strategy during the recent market downturn.

As you can tell, I’m very bullish.

“At Maelstrom, we have maxed out our crypto exposure. Now it’s all about buying and selling different cryptos to stack sats. The coin purchased in the largest quantity was bitcoin during the dip from $110,000 to $74,500. Bitcoin will continue to lead the way as it is the direct beneficiary of more fiat dollars sloshing about due to future monetary liquidity injections provided to soften the impact of a Chi-Merica divorce,” he detailed.

With global sentiment portraying Trump as recklessly using tariffs, investors holding U.S. stocks and bonds are seeking assets perceived as counter to the establishment, Hayes explained, adding: “Physically, that’s gold. Digitally, that’s bitcoin.” Looking ahead, he predicted a major capital shift within crypto markets:

Once bitcoin breaches $110,000, the previous all-time high, it will likely surge, further increasing dominance. Maybe it just misses $200,000. Then the rotation begins from bitcoin into shitcoins.

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