The 45th and 47th U.S. President, Donald Trump, has entertained the notion of remaining in power through 2033, a concept that has left mainstream media utterly exasperated. In March, during an interview with NBC News, Trump informed reporters that although it was “far too early to think about it,” he emphasized that “there are methods which you could do it.”

Currently, hats and shirts bearing the slogan “Trump 2028 (Re-write the Rules)” are available for purchase through the Trump Organization’s website. This has ignited a wave of speculative bets on crypto-infused prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket. On Kalshi, a wager titled “Will Trump be allowed to run for a third term?” carries a 14% probability of materializing.

This Kalshi bet carries a 14% chance of coming to fruition as of April 27, 2025.

Meanwhile, participants on Polymarket have also placed wagers on the topic, though the odds there are less favorable. For example, a wager on Polymarket with a trading volume of $27,657 assigns a 7% likelihood to Trump declaring his intention to pursue a third term. The odds for this particular bet climbed as high as 10% at the beginning of April. Another bet, boasting a volume of $203,239 on Polymarket, inquires whether Trump will repeal the term limit Amendment.

The probability of this occurring stands at 5%, though prior to Trump’s election, the chances peaked at 11% in December 2024. A far smaller wager, with a volume of $9,353, speculates on whether legislation will permit Trump to seek a third term. According to the betting figures from April 27, there is merely a 1% likelihood of this scenario unfolding. Only one U.S. president has ever served beyond two terms: Franklin D. Roosevelt.

Roosevelt was permitted to serve four terms and remained in office until his death in 1945. However, six years later, in 1951, the 22nd Amendment was ratified, formally restricting presidents to two terms. No other president before or after Roosevelt has exceeded the two-term limit. Furthermore, no modern U.S. president apart from Donald Trump has earnestly proposed or openly examined the possibility of running for a third term or finding ways to circumvent the two-term restriction established by the 22nd Amendment.

Though promotional apparel and speculative wagers capture attention, many insist that the constitutional limits and historical precedent render a third presidential term nearly inconceivable. Betting platforms may reflect curiosity, yet markets, at least for now, remain tempered by the 22nd Amendment’s clear boundary. As slogans circulate, reality has remained grounded in strict legal safeguards that have constrained U.S. leadership tenure for more than seven decades.

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