Source: Cointelegraph
Original: “This Week's 5 Key Focus Points for Bitcoin (BTC) Market: 'Local Top' and $88,000 Retest?”
Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a significant macro data week in the U.S., with crypto market participants warning of potential volatility next week.
After a bullish weekly close, Bitcoin is retesting the $92,000 level, but traders still expect a deeper correction in BTC prices.
As the Federal Reserve faces multiple pressures, the U.S. is set for a heavy week of macro data releases.
Analysts believe that the Federal Reserve is currently constrained by multiple factors, with expectations for interest rate cuts and a significant increase in liquidity, potentially allowing BTC/USD to reach $180,000 within 18 months.
Short-term Bitcoin holders have returned to profitability, making the current price level particularly important for speculative investors.
Research conclusions indicate that while market sentiment is in a neutral zone, collective FOMO psychology may limit further price increases.
As the new week begins, Bitcoin hovers near multi-month highs, having tested the $92,000 support level after the weekly close.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, the weekly close was bullish, finishing slightly above the key annual opening price of $93,500.
BTCCan Bitcoin do it? Can Bitcoin Weekly Close above $93,500 to start the process of regaining the previous Range? $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/r5reRJ0HFy pic.twitter.com/5ga0gcSqX4
Well-known trader CrypNuevo predicts an "interesting week" ahead, expressing optimism about BTC/USD's potential to create new highs.
"It's simple — I believe the current momentum has not yet exhausted, and there may be a third wave up to $97,000, where there is some liquidity," he stated on the X platform.
"Ultimately, we should see a retest of the 50-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, which could become a potential support level."
CrypNuevo refers to the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the 4-hour timeframe, currently at $91,850.
Regarding potential support level retests, another trader, Roman, believes a deeper correction may occur.
"Waiting to see what happens at the $88,000 level," he told followers on the X platform.
"I don't think the likelihood of breaking the $94,000 resistance level in the short term is high."
Roman reiterated that the stochastic relative strength index (RSI) remains in a severely overbought zone, indicating that prices may experience a cooling period.
Meanwhile, trader and commentator Skew is focused on the $90,000 to $92,000 range, stating that the current price action reflects the market's "indecision."
This week, U.S. macroeconomic data and inflation developments will reach a critical moment, with a series of important data releases scheduled.
First-quarter GDP, non-farm payroll data, and tech stock earnings will be released, but the most notable is the Federal Reserve's "preferred" inflation indicator — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.
The PCE and GDP data will be released on April 30, with both indicators set to be published before the monthly close, potentially triggering volatility in cryptocurrencies and risk assets.
The current situation is already tense — U.S. trade tariffs have led to significant volatility in the cryptocurrency, stock, and commodity markets, and it seems unlikely that this situation will end in the short term.
The trading information platform The Kobeissi Letter noted in its ongoing analysis on the X platform: "This year is one of the most volatile years in history: the S&P 500 has experienced 2% two-way volatility on 23% of trading days, averaging at least once a week this year."
"This is the highest reading since 2022, when the annual ratio reached 29%. In contrast, the long-term average is twice a month."
At the same time, inflation expectations have become a key topic. Despite the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance, the market expects rate cuts to begin in June.
The latest data from CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that the market is divided on the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in June.
In contrast, the market almost unanimously expects the FOMC meeting in May to keep the current federal funds rate unchanged.
"Strong evidence of a robust labor market and concerns that tariffs may affect the inflation outlook have kept the Federal Reserve on hold regarding interest rates," trading firm Mosaic Asset wrote in its April 27 newsletter, "The Market Mosaic."
Mosaic cited FedWatch data, stating, "The market-implied probability is beginning to shift towards supporting more rate cuts before the end of the year."
Current macro data has caught the attention of crypto market participants, who are weighing the long-term impacts of the Federal Reserve's current policies.
Hedge fund founder Dan Tapiero made a bold prediction regarding Bitcoin (BTC) prices in his latest analysis on the X platform.
"Bitcoin will reach $180,000 before the summer of 2026," he concluded.
Tapiero noted that the Federal Reserve's latest survey shows that manufacturing expectations are deteriorating at a record pace, calling these results "hard to ignore."
In another post regarding the outlook for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), he continued, "Forward market inflation indicators are falling into dangerous territory."
In both cases, Tapiero concluded that against the backdrop of record M2 money supply, Bitcoin and risk assets will benefit from increased market liquidity — a theory that has gained widespread acceptance.
He added regarding current interest rates: "Given fiscal tightening, real rates are too restrictive, and the liquidity floodgates are about to open."
Due to the impact of short-term holders' (STH) average cost basis on market trends, Bitcoin short-term holders have once again become a focal point at the current price level.
As Cointelegraph often reports, the cost basis (also known as realized price) reflects the average price at which speculative investors entered the market.
This level covers buyers from the past six months and is subdivided into several subcategories, particularly important during Bitcoin bull markets.
CryptoQuant contributor CryptoMe wrote in their "Quicktake" blog post: "From the current situation, the price has reached the STH realized price."
CryptoQuant data shows that the STH aggregate cost basis is currently around $92,000, making this level a key support point to maintain in the future.
CryptoMe explained: "A key on-chain condition for a bull market is for the price to remain above the STH realized price. If the price falls below the realized price, we can't really talk about a bull market."
"If this bull market is to continue, these conditions must be met."
In March, the STH cost basis lost support, while the recent BTC price rebound had an almost immediate impact on its latest buyers.
Earlier this month, coins held by STH moved on-chain, triggering predictions of increased market volatility.
After the cryptocurrency market's greed index hit a nearly three-month high last week, this week's greed sentiment has once again drawn attention as a price influence factor.
The latest crypto fear and greed index data shows that on April 25, the index surged to 72/100, indicating that crypto market sentiment is nearing "extreme greed."
Although it has now returned to the "neutral" zone, research firm Santiment still warns of a potential local price top.
Santiment informed followers on the X platform: "Data shows that as BTC rebounded above $95,000 for the first time since February, market sentiment has surged with optimism."
"In terms of the level of greed measured on social media, this is the highest peak of bullish (relative to bearish) posts since the night Trump was elected on November 5, 2024."
Attached images show the "excitement and FOMO sentiment" reaching a peak due to the BTC price rebound, as described by Santiment.
The company added: "The crowd's levels of greed and fear are likely to influence whether a local top forms (as the crowd is too greedy) or whether cryptocurrencies can continue to decouple from the S&P 500 (as the crowd tries to take profits too early)."
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) Pulls Back After Breaking $95,000; Institutional Activity May Trigger Market Volatility
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trade involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
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