Original Author: Alex Liu, Foresight News
HAEADL is the token of the Sui ecosystem's liquid staking protocol Haedal, which has been confirmed to launch on Binance Alpha and Bybit spot. Haedal announced the completion of its seed round financing in January, with the specific amount undisclosed. Investors participating in this round include Hashed, Comma3 Ventures, OKX Ventures, Animoca Ventures, Sui Foundation, Flow Traders, Dewhales Capital, Cetus, Scallop, and others.
In addition, Haedal has opened an airdrop query interface and will start token claims today (April 29) at 20:00.
The author accurately predicted the opening price of the Sui ecosystem's WAL token in the article The Most Valuable Sui Airdrop? Comprehensive Prediction of WAL Token Value. This time, what is the reasonable price for HAEDAL?
First, let's look at the tokenomics: HAEDAL has a total supply of 1 billion tokens, with an initial circulation accounting for 19.5% of the total supply. The ecosystem incentive distribution accounts for 55%, the liquidity fund for 10%, investors for 15%, and the team and advisors for 20%.
Pre-market Prices
Next, let's examine the pre-market prices. Currently, HAEDAL is quoted at 0.3 USDC on Whales.market, while the pre-market on Sui's PinataBot quotes it at 0.1275 USDC, corresponding to a fully diluted market cap of 300 million dollars and 127.5 million dollars, respectively.
The author believes that the price on Whales.market is not reliable. On the order book, the price of 0.3 USDC is a seller's order, while there are very few buyer orders, with the highest bid of 0.15 USDC backed by only 300 USDC in margin.
Observing the historical trades at high prices on Whales.market, it is found that the total trading volume is less than 1000 dollars. Such trading volume is insufficient to serve as an effective data reference and is more likely a "high expectation" created by stakeholders at a low cost.
Comparison with Similar Projects
Returning to rational analysis, what is the fundamental ranking of the Haedal protocol within the Sui ecosystem?
TVL ranking of Sui ecosystem protocols, data source: DeFiLlama
Haedal (LST) ranks fourth in TVL, following Suilend (lending + AMM + LST), NAVI (lending + LST), and Cetus (AMM). It is worth noting that the TVL of Suilend's liquid staking portion (SpringSui) is also higher than that of Haedal, making Haedal the fourth protocol in Sui's ecosystem by TVL and the second protocol in the LST track by TVL.
As the highest TVL lending protocol and liquid staking LST protocol in the Sui ecosystem, the token SEND currently has a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of only about 72 million dollars. If HAEDAL is valued above 0.1 dollars, then either HAEDAL is overvalued or SEND is undervalued.
Conclusion
Combining HAEDAL's financing background, the high premium of the launch platform, the current high attention, pre-market performance, and the actual market share and fundamentals of the Haedal protocol, the author believes that HAEDAL has a low probability of opening above 0.1 dollars, but this will also be the author's selling range. In the short term, HAEDAL is likely to trend towards 0.05 dollars or even lower.
The above is the author's subjective analysis and does not constitute financial advice. Please DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
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