Today, I spent a lot of time writing the monthly report content. I only started writing when it was almost dawn, so I'll pause my replies for now. I've roughly gone through everything and responded to the key points. I'll continue to reply to private messages overnight. Although I know that many people don't like to read the lengthy discussions I write, that's okay; I enjoy reading them myself. Each time I write is also a way to organize my knowledge and memory.

The core of today's market revolves around the White House adjusting the auto tariff policy, encouraging overseas car manufacturers to build factories in the U.S. in exchange for gradual tax reductions over three years. This shows that Trump intends to reshape the manufacturing landscape and create jobs through tariff leverage. However, companies also need to weigh the costs of building factories against the sustainability of the policy, especially considering the uncertainty of a regime change in 2028.

In terms of macro data, although the impact of PCE is generally underestimated, there is a clear divergence in the interpretation of GDP: one camp believes the market has fully priced it in, and that the lagging data is not a concern; the other camp argues that low GDP actually strengthens the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is a positive factor. Additionally, the earnings season is also a short-term factor supporting U.S. stocks.

Overall, uncertainty remains high, and it is more prudent to maintain a wait-and-see approach for clearer signals. Regarding Bitcoin, the current volatile market has not triggered significant turnover, and the atmosphere is heavily cautious. The main positions are still concentrated in the $93,000–$98,000 range, with short-term support remaining at $83,000. However, due to holders leaning towards short-term positions, further consolidation is needed to solidify the structure.

This tweet is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。