Crypto Circle Morning Report | Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Tracking real-time hotspots in the crypto world and seizing the best trading opportunities! Good morning, crypto friends ☀️ I am Wang Yibo, thank you to my loyal fans for your support and likes to boost investment! 🍗🍗🌹🌹

April Crypto Market Review: Opportunities and Games Amidst Fluctuations

Looking back at the end of April, the crypto market staged a thrilling tug-of-war between bulls and bears this month. A wave of liquidations swept through the contract market, and the altcoin sector faced numerous risks, with concentrated token unlocks triggering selling pressure and sudden delistings posing high risks, keeping investors on edge. The sudden "tariff stick" from Trump directly plunged Bitcoin's price to a low of $74,460, marking a turning point in the market.

A turnaround soon followed, driven by favorable policies and a warming market sentiment, leading to a strong rebound in Bitcoin. After a 10-day consolidation at the critical resistance level of $85,000, the bulls broke through, surging to $95,748. The market has now entered a phase of sideways consolidation again. Notably, institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark Invest, and MicroStrategy have continued to increase their holdings during this period, contrasting sharply with retail investors' panic selling, highlighting the brutal nature of the crypto market's "institutional accumulation, retail exit" game. The profound impact of Trump's policies on the market can aptly be described as "success and failure both stem from the same source."

U.S. Stock Market Dynamics: Tech Stocks Lead the Rebound, Rate Hike Expectations Cool

U.S. stocks closed higher across the board on Tuesday, with the Dow up 0.75%, the S&P 500 rising 0.58%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.55%. Tech stocks performed well, with Tesla up 2.1%, Nvidia slightly rising, and Apple closing up 0.5%. In terms of Chinese concept stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.3%, Alibaba rose 0.5%, but Xpeng Motors plummeted 6.3%.

In the interest rate market, CME's "FedWatch" data shows that the market expects a 92.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in May, with only a 7.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut; looking ahead to June, the probability of maintaining rates drops to 35.1%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 60.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 4.8%. The market's expectations for a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have significantly increased.

Bitcoin Market Analysis: Fluctuating Tug-of-War, Focus on Key Ranges

Bitcoin continued its upward oscillation yesterday, reaching a high of $95,407. After testing the upper resistance level, it began to pull back during the early hours, dipping to a low of $93,700. The intraday market showed a narrow tug-of-war between bulls and bears; despite frequent fluctuations, the overall upward trend remains solid, aligning with recent range oscillation predictions. The current oscillation pattern helps to digest short-term overbought pressure and solidify the bottom support structure.

In terms of trading strategy, it is recommended that investors focus on the key support range of $93,500-$93,200, with resistance levels to watch at $95,200-$95,500. Day trading should primarily focus on short-term fluctuations while closely monitoring global macro risk events for potential impacts on the market.

Ethereum Trend Analysis: Range Oscillation, Focus on High Selling and Low Buying

Ethereum's trend closely mirrors that of Bitcoin, with a relatively narrowed oscillation range, maintaining a tug-of-war within the $1,700-$1,850 range. From the 4-hour candlestick pattern, after recovering key support, it continues the oscillation pattern from last week, with both bulls and bears locked in a stalemate, with upward momentum and downward pressure failing to break through effectively.

In the absence of significant news stimuli, Ethereum is exhibiting typical range consolidation characteristics in the short term. Although the larger bullish trend remains unchanged, insufficient trading activity limits intraday volatility. It is recommended to adopt a high selling and low buying strategy to capture trading opportunities at both ends of the range.

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If you are feeling lost—unable to understand technology, unsure how to read the market, not knowing when to enter, unable to set stop losses, unclear on taking profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck while trying to bottom out, unable to hold onto profits, missing market opportunities… these are common issues for retail investors. But don't worry, I can help you establish the right trading mindset. A single profitable trade speaks louder than a thousand words; finding the right direction is better than repeated failures. Instead of frequent trading, precise strikes make each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code at the bottom of the article to follow my public account. Market conditions change rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends should be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to progressing steadily with you in the market.

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