Wall Street analysts are standing firmly behind Strategy’s (MSTR) aggressive escalation of its bitcoin (BTC) acquisition strategy after the company unveiled plans to double its capital-raising ambitions.
"While the number of companies that have sought to replicate Strategy’s bitcoin acquisition strategy has continued to grow rapidly … MSTR yesterday issued a reminder of the extent of its first-mover advantage and how its ability to accelerate its accumulation of bitcoin has continued to increase as its platform has scaled," wrote Benchmark's Mark Palmer, reiterating his buy rating and $650 price target.
Though MSTR trades at more than double the value of its bitcoin holdings, Palmer says that level is "attractive" thanks to Executive Chairman Michael Saylor and team's "demonstrated ability to create shareholder value through its treasury operations."
Alongside reporting its first quarter results Thursday evening, Strategy announced an expansion of its recent 21/21 plan — raising $42 billion via issuance of common stock and debt (or debt-like securities) — to a total of $84 billion.
TD Cowen's Lance Vitanza, meanwhile, acknowledged the ambition of the updated strategy, calling it “aggressive perhaps but by no means out of the question.” The firm noted that Strategy has already raised $28.3 billion under the original 21/21 Plan and that the company’s significantly larger $111 billion market cap and deep trading liquidity bolster the credibility of the new fundraising efforts. With average daily share volume of $5.6 billion, Vitanza — reiterating his buy rating and $550 price target — suggested that raising another $56.7 billion over the next 32 months is realistic.
Both analysts also praised Strategy’s decision to increase its bitcoin-related performance targets, including raising its 2025 BTC Yield target to 25% (from 15%) and BTC $ Gain to $15 billion (from $10 billion). Benchmark's Palmer pointed out that the company has already achieved ~90% of its original BTC Yield target in just four months.
MSTR shares are higher by 1.8% to $388 early Friday as bitcoin continues to tread water just below the $97,000 level.
Earnings call highlights
“The adoption of the Bitcoin standard by more companies is beneficial, legitimizing bitcoin and attracting more capital," said Saylor on the post-earnings conference call Thursday evening. "As more companies join, it stabilizes and drives up bitcoin's price," he continued. "Each market needs its own BTC companies, and as more join, it accelerates the transition to the bitcoin standard, pressuring others to join.”
Addressing concerns over dilution, CEO Fong Li emphasized the accretive nature of the equity raises:
“Issuing equity at greater than one times mNAV [the multiple of the company's net asset value] is accretive, not dilutive," said Li. "As mNAV rises, equity issuance becomes more like fixed income, and we aim to make the fixed income market more efficient.”
Acknowledging the company's $5.9 billion unrealized loss in the first quarter due to bitcoin’s price decline under newly adopted fair value accounting, CFO Andrew Kang remained unfazed:
“Despite the volatility, we believe the transparency is vital… We expect more positive swings over time, aligning with our long-term strategy.”
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