In the Q&A of Duan Yongping, there is a profound statement that describes the difference in understanding a project between investors:
The difference in skill between someone who only dares to invest 5% and someone who is willing to bet their entire fortune is 20 years.
This statement is slightly exaggerated; I think it might be easier to understand if we rephrase it:
The difference in understanding a project between someone who only dares to take a small position and someone who is willing to take a large position is enormous. Only the latter can truly reflect an investor's understanding and confidence in the project.
Of course, this is not referring to gamblers who, after losing heavily in a casino, bet their entire fortune on a single gamble, but rather to the situation of rationally participating in a project under normal circumstances.
When I first read this statement, it reminded me of my experience participating in NFTs. Two projects I was involved in formed a stark contrast: one was CryptoPunks, and the other was Bored Apes.
I have previously written about this experience in past articles.
When I first bought CryptoPunks, the entire NFT market had not yet surged, and I recall that Bored Apes had just been released. In that environment, the price of a Punk was already 15 Ethereum.
This price may not seem expensive today, but at that time, it was certainly not cheap.
However, in that situation, perhaps due to my usual interest in collecting, I subconsciously recognized the value of Punks and bought in without hesitation.
After purchasing, I actively recommended it to my friends, suggesting they also buy in.
That was one of the very few times (if I remember correctly, it should be the only time) I proactively recommended a project to my friends. I had never actively recommended Bitcoin or Ethereum to friends; I would only suggest them when close friends asked me what price they should buy at.
Therefore, my understanding and confidence in CryptoPunks at that time could be said to be, to some extent, even higher than that of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
In contrast, with Bored Apes, I bought in at around 1 Ethereum, a much cheaper price than Bored Apes, but I had no confidence when buying Bored Apes, nor did I recommend it to any friends. I bought it purely with a half-hearted, experimental mindset. Of course, I couldn't go in heavy.
Perhaps this is the difference in understanding and confidence in a project that leads to the distinction between only daring to take a small position and taking a large position.
Later, when the entire NFT ecosystem began to collapse, and Bored Apes' focus on gaming failed to find another development path, I decided to control risk by keeping only Mutant Apes and selling all my Bored Apes. At that moment, what I immediately thought of was not converting Bored Apes into stablecoins, but rather converting all my Bored Apes into CryptoPunks.
Looking back now, I subconsciously had much more confidence in Punks than in Bored Apes—despite the fact that at that time, the absolute price of Bored Apes was still much higher than that of Punks (one Bored Ape could barely be exchanged for two Punks).
Since then, I have hardly paid attention to Punks and rarely looked at their floor price, but I have never worried about them going to zero, nor have I worried about them not appreciating in the future.
Hearing discussions again about how Punks are being challenged by a wave of new Bitcoin NFT projects emerging after the rise of the Bitcoin ecosystem, with prices rising daily and claims that they will surpass Punks.
But now the price of CryptoPunks is 42 ETH ($77,000).
And the prices of those emerging Bitcoin NFTs:
The top-ranked Taproot Wizards is only 0.15 BTC ($17,000).
Once popular projects like CryptoKitties and Node Monkeys are priced at less than 0.05 BTC ($4,000), not even reaching a fraction of a Punk's price.
Although Bored Apes still dominate Ethereum NFTs, they are only at 14 ETH ($25,000). Once, a Bored Ape surpassed a Punk, but now it is only a third of a Punk's price.
Reflecting on these, from an investment rather than a casual perspective, it seems that the only three projects I have heavily invested in and can ignore market fluctuations while holding onto are Bitcoin, Ethereum, and CryptoPunks.
This Saturday (May 10th) at 7:30 PM, we will have an online discussion. Everyone can leave their questions at the link below.
https://x.com/Dao_Views/status/1919577184945004559
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