Metrics Ventures May Market Observation Guide for the Crypto Market

1/ Following our April viewpoint, Bitcoin and global risk asset prices have clearly established a bottom this month as expected. For the first time in years, Bitcoin has become the best-performing dollar asset after the recovery from the liquidity crisis, which is encouraging. As of the date of this report, the actual operating price center of Bitcoin has already broken through the consolidation range of March.

2/ Throughout the month, after a massive turnover in the past three months, Bitcoin has actually entered a state of supply exhaustion, with trading volumes of both bulls and bears remaining moderate. From the sentiment in the market, a large number of on-site traders are shorting the market and altcoins, which aligns with the judgment of many old crypto enthusiasts based on fundamental chip theory and trading habits indicating a market top.

3/ As for altcoins, there is no need to elaborate. Although some newly listed tokens and the old stronghold altcoin represented by SUI have made price attempts, the overall performance remains unsatisfactory. It is hard to say that the profit effect will return before new liquidity and emotional peaks arrive. We are also seeing more and more crypto-related assets choosing to embrace SPACs, listings, and various liquidity acquisition channels in trading venues like Nasdaq. It can be anticipated that the funding flow path of the next liquidity cycle is quietly changing, posing more severe challenges to existing old altcoins.

Overview and Commentary on Overall Market Trends

This month's market is significant. During the process of volatility convergence after large fluctuations, the strength and weakness of assets often represent trend changes. Bitcoin's strength has exceeded many participants' expectations. However, we believe this period highlights several very important points: 1/ Bitcoin still does not have a centralized selling pressure issue. The current clearing mainly involves old coins and floating chips from trading, so the end of the cycle should be predicated on liquidity exhaustion and turning points, which contradicts the actual trend of global liquidity;

2/ MicroStrategy's Q1 2025 report reveals a miracle in the history of capital markets. We believe this is something the market does not understand. In short, MicroStrategy raised $7.7 billion in Q1 2025 through direct issuance, convertible bonds, and other means, surpassing the $4.4 billion raised in Q4 2024. During the significant decline of the US stock market, MicroStrategy became one of the most resilient dollar risk assets, consistently ranking among the top ten in trading volume, which is astonishing. Even more surprising is that, from the results, this is a stock that the entire market welcomes for reducing holdings and increasing issuance, a miracle in human capital history. The market has significantly underestimated MicroStrategy's actual financing and purchasing power, and existing arrogance and prejudice may lead to greater emotional reversals in the future;

3/ If we previously believed that pricing power was merely "shifting" in 2024, we can now conclude that the handover of pricing power has been completed. Most of the old coin analysis frameworks will be eliminated, and research on asset attributes, dollar cycles, and asset operation rules will be more rewarded by the market. The liquidity circulation path in the crypto space will also validate the aforementioned conclusions during the next emotional surge.

Overall, we are very optimistic about the future trend of BTC. This optimism is based on the inevitability of an increasing slope of liquidity growth and the divergence between actual trends and market participants' understanding.

Speaking of altcoins, we also believe that the current new altcoin operation model linked to the US stock market will be a key focus in the next emotional overflow cycle, worthy of attention from all peers.

Finally, a brief discussion on our views regarding RMB assets. The RMB's stunning turnaround from a fundamental perspective will gradually let the world recognize it, much like the J-10CE's outstanding performance in the India-Pakistan conflict. This will gradually highlight the RMB assets entering a new upward channel, with the bottom continuously rising. The price divergence from the fundamentals is due to long-term bearish inertia, making it the best layout interval. Global easing is already on the horizon, and the recently concluded high-profile financial statements are an important signal. Do not get lost in the chaotic American drama; global central banks have effectively made their choices.

To some extent, BTC in the eyes of crypto industry personnel is akin to A-shares in the eyes of the vast Chinese populace. What we want to convey is precisely this connection, encapsulated in a poem that reflects our insights on the past market of the two major MVC-heavy industries and our outlook for the future:

Red, orange, yellow, green, blue, indigo, violet, who holds the colorful ribbon dancing in the sky? After the rain, the slanting sun returns, the mountains and rivers are vast. The fierce battles of the past, the bullet holes in the village wall. Adorning these mountains and rivers, today looks even better.

About Us

Metrics Ventures is a data and research-driven liquidity fund for the secondary market of crypto assets, led by a team of experienced crypto professionals. The team possesses expertise in primary market incubation and secondary market trading, playing an active role in industry development through in-depth on-chain/off-chain data analysis. MVC collaborates with senior influential figures in the crypto community to provide long-term empowerment support for projects, such as media and KOL resources, ecological collaboration resources, project strategies, and economic model consulting capabilities.

We welcome everyone to DM us to share and discuss insights and ideas about the crypto asset market and investments.

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If you: have bought sol below 40, or ordi below 25, or inj below 14, or rndr below 3.2, or tia below 10, and meet any two of the above criteria, please contact us at admin@metrics.ventures, ops@metrics.ventures.

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