Currently, our prediction for ETH is that it can break through $5,000 in the long term. In an optimistic scenario, if BTC rises to over $300,000 in this cycle, ETH is expected to reach $10,000, and we will continue to capture opportunities related to the ETH ecosystem in the long term.
Since the TrendResearch report was released across the network on April 24, 2025, ETH has risen from around $1,800 to approximately $2,400, with an increase of about 30% within a month. The prediction made before the report was written started at $1,450. As a trillion-dollar asset, it presents a rare opportunity for large funds to achieve high returns in the short term. The main reasons for the strong bullish outlook at that time included: ETH still possesses robust financial data, and its status as an important infrastructure in crypto has not changed; the significant adjustment from the recent high (over 60% drop in 4 months); the large scale of short positions in the derivatives market, which has risen to important support and resistance areas after a surge in spot volume; and the continuous layout of traditional finance and gradual inflow of ETFs. Currently, our prediction for ETH is that it can break through $5,000 in the long term. In an optimistic scenario, if BTC rises to over $300,000 in this cycle, ETH is expected to reach $10,000, and we will continue to capture opportunities related to the ETH ecosystem in the long term.
1. Valuation Prediction for ETH
An important background for the new valuation of ETH is the capture of the trend of integration between key digital assets and traditional finance. We note that BTC, as the most important digital asset, has begun to be included as a strategic reserve asset by various states in the U.S. following the approval of spot ETFs, gradually becoming a scale expansion of dollar assets and a certain degree of strategic alternative. It currently ranks 6th in global asset market capitalization, with U.S. BTC spot ETFs managing approximately $118.6 billion in assets, accounting for about 6% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization. The trend of integration between crypto assets and traditional finance is no longer in doubt. CZ stated in an interview in Dubai in May that Bitcoin's price in this market cycle could reach between $500,000 and $1,000,000.
ETH still possesses robust financial data, and its status as the most important infrastructure in crypto finance has not changed. The total TVL of Ethereum DeFi is approximately $60 billion, accounting for over 53% of the global DeFi market, while the market capitalization of stablecoins is $124 billion, accounting for over 50% of the total market capitalization of stablecoins. The total AUM of Ethereum ETFs is $7.2 billion, and BlackRock's tokenized money market fund BUIDL has an investment scale of about $2.7 billion in the Ethereum ecosystem, accounting for 92% of its total assets.
ETH quickly fell to around $1,300 after reaching three peaks at $4,000 in 2024, with an ATH of over $4,800. Based on the following potential factors, we predict that ETH's price will reach $5,000 in this cycle:
- The imminent end of U.S. QT and the further start of interest rate cuts
- The new SEC chairman may bring breakthroughs in the promotion of tokenization on the ETH chain and related staking legislation
- Management and route repair of the ETH Foundation, maintaining a certain degree of infrastructure innovation
- A steadily growing on-chain financial ecosystem
Under the long-term optimistic prediction, ETH is expected to challenge $10,000 in the new cycle, provided the following conditions are met:
- BTC rises to over $300,000
- ETH brings impressive infrastructure innovations beneficial to DeFi
- U.S. institutions promote ETH as an important native venue for asset tokenization
- Demonstration effects drive global asset tokenization
2. Three ETH Ecosystem Projects Not to Be Ignored
1. UNI (Uniswap): The Largest DEX Protocol in the Crypto Market
Uniswap is the earliest and largest DEX protocol in the crypto market, with a TVL of $4.7 billion and daily trading volume exceeding $2 billion, generating $900 million in revenue annually. UNI is fully circulated, with about 40% locked for governance, and currently has a market capitalization of $4 billion, with an FDV of $6.6 billion.
Currently, there is a certain decoupling between UNI's token economics design and protocol revenue, as the revenue generated by the protocol is not automatically distributed to UNI token holders. UNI mainly serves as a governance token, allowing holders to vote on the use of the treasury, which can indirectly have a positive effect on the price of UNI through governance proposals, such as the DAO voting to repurchase 10 million UNI in 2024.
The decoupling between protocol revenue and token earnings is mainly due to previous SEC regulatory risks regarding the classification of securities. Currently, as U.S. crypto regulation gradually becomes more lenient and standardized, the protocol distribution of UNI may have upgrade potential in the future.
Recent major developments for Uniswap include the expansion of Uniswap V4 and Unichain, and the preliminary activation of the "Fee Switch" mechanism.
2. AAVE (Aave): The Largest Lending Protocol in the Crypto Market
AAVE is the largest lending protocol in the crypto market, with a TVL of $23 billion and generating $450 million in revenue annually. The token is 100% circulated, with a current market capitalization of $3.3 billion.
Similar to UNI, there is no direct dividend relationship between protocol revenue and AAVE, but it is influenced indirectly through governance.
Recent major developments for Aave include the development of Aave V4, cross-chain expansion of the native stablecoin GHO, and advancing the Horizon project for RWA business exploration.
3. ENA (Ethena): The Largest Synthetic Stablecoin Protocol in the Crypto Market
Since 2025, Ethena's synthetic dollar USDe has become the third-largest dollar-pegged asset in the crypto market, with an issuance scale second only to USDT and USDC, and USDe is the only synthetic stablecoin among them. In terms of revenue, Ethena is also a lucrative DeFi protocol, generating $315 million in revenue annually. ENA currently has a market capitalization of $2.18 billion, with an FDV of $5.6 billion.
Recently, Ethena has made comprehensive business progress: Ethena is collaborating with Securitize to launch the "Converge" blockchain network, aimed at bridging traditional finance and DeFi, planning to launch a stablecoin product iUSDe for traditional financial institutions, integrating its stablecoin sUSDe into the Telegram application, and building an ecosystem based on its stablecoin sUSDe, including a perpetual and spot exchange Ethereal based on its own application chain and an on-chain options and structured products protocol Derive.
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