1. Market Observation

Keywords: SOL, ETH, BTC

The global financial market is experiencing positive changes, as the US and China reached an important consensus during talks held over the weekend in Geneva, Switzerland. Both sides agreed to establish a trade negotiation mechanism to lay the groundwork for resolving differences. Trump praised the negotiations on social media, stating they "made tremendous progress," and his Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Lighthizer also indicated they would share more details today. Additionally, the US will release the April CPI data on May 13. The March CPI had previously decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking a nearly five-year low, while the core CPI year-on-year increase was 2.8%, the lowest level in four years. However, analysts expect that this easing of inflationary pressures may be difficult to sustain, especially after the Trump administration implemented comprehensive tariff policies. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated that this could be the calm before the inflation storm. Observers noted that the US government's tariff measures could push inflation levels higher in the coming months, which may impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. The market is closely watching the upcoming CPI data to assess the specific effects of tariff transmission on the US economy.

Ethereum is currently leading the recent cryptocurrency market, replacing Bitcoin. Bitcoin's price over the weekend remained almost unchanged from Friday, showing no significant volatility. The market expects that today's US stock market opening and the results of the US-China negotiations will influence Bitcoin's direction. Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that market data shows current liquidity is mainly concentrated around $104,000, with $106,000 becoming the next key resistance level. However, some traders are cautious about the short-term trend, fearing a potential "false breakout" followed by a drop back to $102,000 or lower. Ethereum has performed particularly well following the successful implementation of the Pectra upgrade, breaking through $2,600 over the weekend, with a weekly increase of nearly 40%, driving a revival in the entire crypto ecosystem. The market has begun to anticipate the next major upgrade, Fusaka, before the end of the year. Although some institutions have recently started purchasing Ethereum and Bitcoin, such as Abraxas Capital, which withdrew 185,309 Ethereum (currently worth about $470 million) from Binance within three days, this portion of ETH has been deposited into Aave and Compound. The institution had also purchased over $250 million in Bitcoin in mid-April. However, it is noteworthy that several whales and smart money have begun shorting and selling BTC, ETH, and SOL today.

The altcoin market has recently shown signs of recovery, with a slight pullback today. DWF Labs partner Andrei Grachev revealed last Friday that they are making large purchases of various small coins, considering building strategic reserves. However, analysts have differing opinions on the sustainability of the market. Some, like 2Lambroz, believe that the altcoin season may have arrived, but the market lacks strong narratives, and retail participation is not evident. Meanwhile, technical analysts point out that the current market structure is similar to that of 2016 and 2020, suggesting that small coins may experience explosive growth after a period of accumulation. Over the weekend, two popular meme coins also emerged: one is the $USELESS token, which emphasizes "uselessness" and has the support of the Bonk founder; the other is a new character created by the father of Pepe, the mouse frog $RATO. MOODENG and GOAT, which launched on Binance Alpha, have also performed well recently, with MOODENG rising from $0.0396 to $0.294 (up 642%) since May 8, and GOAT increasing from $0.07 to $0.2428 (up 247%). Additionally, the TRUMP dinner ranking will close at 1:30 AM on May 13, at which point the top 220 dinner qualifications will be determined. Some traders are betting on TRUMP's future, with a new wallet withdrawing $7.6 million in TRUMP from Binance and OKX today.

2. Key Data (As of May 12, 12:00 HKT)

(Data Source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $104,008 (Year-to-date +11.2%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $27.02 billion

• Ethereum: $2,517.00 (Year-to-date -24.26%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $23.22 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 70 (Greed)

• Average GAS: BTC 1. sat/vB, ETH 1.02 Gwei

• Market Share: BTC 61.8%, ETH 9.1%

• Upbit 24-Hour Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, DOGE, BTC, MOVE, PUNDIX

• 24-Hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 1.0342

• Sector Performance: Meme sector up 3.52%, AI sector up 1.28%

• 24-Hour Liquidation Data: A total of 136,060 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $337 million, including $42.58 million in BTC, $104 million in ETH, and $22.64 million in MOODENG.

• BTC Medium to Long-Term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line ($100,217.67), Lower Channel Line ($98,233.16)

• ETH Medium to Long-Term Trend Channel: Upper Channel Line ($2,151.34), Lower Channel Line ($2,108.74)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF Flows (As of May 9)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$321.46 million

• Ethereum ETF: +$17.61 million (Net outflow for three consecutive days)

4. Today's Outlook

• US SEC Chairman Paul Atkins will deliver a speech on asset tokenization on the 12th

• The US SEC plans to hold the fourth crypto roundtable, with executives from BlackRock, Fidelity, Nasdaq, and others in attendance

• sns.sol will conduct an SNS token airdrop on May 13, and users will have 90 days to claim the token allocation

• Binance will launch an Alpha points consumption mechanism on May 13, where a certain number of Alpha points will be deducted from users if they successfully participate in TGE or claim an airdrop

• Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at 2 AM on May 13, accounting for 1.82% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $67.5 million.

US April Unadjusted CPI Year-on-Year (May 13, 20:30)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous: 2.4% / Expected: 2.4%

US April Seasonally Adjusted CPI Month-on-Month (May 13, 20:30)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous: -0.1% / Expected: 0.3%

Top Gainers Among the Top 500 by Market Cap Today: MOODENG up 118.78%, GOAT up 56.18%, CHILLGUY up 54.54%, FWOG up 52.13%, TOSHI up 37.56%.

5. Hot News

• Data: APT, ARB, AVAX and other tokens will see large unlocks, with APT unlocking worth approximately $67.5 million

• This Week's Preview | US April CPI data will be revealed; VanEck plans to launch a new crypto-related ETF

• This Week's Macro Outlook: CPI data may trigger stagflation trading script, BTC may face $100,000 support test

• FTX/Alameda address unstaked 187,625 SOL eight hours ago, worth approximately $32.24 million

• Another whale opened a short position worth $44 million in BTC with 40x leverage, liquidation price at $112,660

• Irish presidential candidate Conor McGregor will meet with the President of El Salvador to discuss strategic Bitcoin reserves

• A whale deposited 5 million USDC into Hyperliquid again, shorting BTC, ETH, and SOL with 5x leverage

• Crypto KOL Patricio Worthalter sold 2,000 ETH for 5.01 million USDC

• The "Hyperliquid 50x Whale" opened a high-leverage short on BTC again after 35 days

• A new wallet withdrew $7.6 million in TRUMP from Binance and OKX

• BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for 20 consecutive days, setting a record for the longest inflow this year, with Goldman Sachs' IBIT holdings increasing by 28% in Q1

• Canadian tech company Matador plans to raise 3 million CAD, with part of the net proceeds intended for increasing Bitcoin holdings

• Guotai Junan International is laying out a tokenized securities business

• The topic "What Happened to Ethereum's 40% Surge in 3 Days" topped Douyin's hot list

• Ethereum's market cap surpasses Coca-Cola, rising to 40th place in global asset market cap rankings

• Binance Alpha launched MOODENG and GOAT

• ether.fi Foundation: This week has repurchased 437,000 ETHFI, spending 137 ETH

• DWF Labs partner: Currently making large purchases of various altcoins, considering building strategic reserves

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。