When feeling down, we should often ask ourselves what we have rather than what we lack. If we feel uncomfortable, we can look out the window; the world is vast, the scenery is beautiful, opportunities are abundant, and life is short. We shouldn't curl up in a small shadow. If our lives are at a low point, let's boldly move forward because no matter how we walk, we are moving upward!
The last article was updated last Saturday, but the market changed mainly yesterday, showing a rise and then a pullback. Initially, under the positive news of the US-China trade negotiations reaching a tariff reduction agreement, the market rose to around 105800, which also triggered FOMO in the already high Bitcoin market sentiment. Subsequently, major Wall Street investment banks and the interest rate market began to lower their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates within the year. After the temporary agreement on US-China tariffs, the probability of a rate cut in July has decreased again to only 38.5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate in July has risen to 57.4%. This probability distribution is expected to change again after today's CPI announcement. Since the FOMC in July will not occur until September, if there is no rate cut in July, the earliest time for a rate cut will be directly postponed to September. Overall, the current market situation belongs to a second counterattack by short positions after breaking through the 100,000 mark, and whether this will bring structural changes to the trend still needs time to confirm. At least for now, the profit-taking by previous long positions and the selling pressure from short positions are not significant.
On the chart, it seems to be increasingly resembling our previous expectations, especially after yesterday's high close with a bearish candle, the price approached the MA7 line. The short-term strength can be observed from the gains and losses around the 7-day line. Additionally, from a structural perspective, signs of a top divergence are becoming apparent, with the MACD volume bars contracting during the bullish cycle. Generally, in such cases, the market either needs to break through strongly, likely requiring a push above 130,000, or undergo a long-term oscillation at the daily level, or simply complete a correction. Moreover, as previously mentioned, the RSI is overbought, which definitely needs to be corrected, without exception; it’s just a matter of intensity.
From the perspective of liquidity distribution, the trend is basically as expected. The market first surged, leading to a liquidation of short liquidity in the 105000-106000 area, followed by a downward liquidation of short-term long liquidity due to news impact, resulting in a spike and then a pullback, forcing short-term longs to liquidate. As of now, the coin price is fluctuating above 102000, and there is no significant accumulation of new liquidity; perhaps it is waiting for new liquidity accumulation during the oscillation.
On the four-hour level, we have entered a consolidation area after a pullback, with the MACD in a bearish cycle. There is a slight distinction here; the high point of 105800 appeared during the bearish cycle. Generally, in the previous bullish cycle, the bullish volume was sufficiently large, and after the adjustment, it would continue to reach a new high. However, now the high appears during a pullback cycle, indicating that before this small pullback, the bulls hoped to push higher, but ultimately, there was insufficient market consensus, and the bullish volume could not achieve this goal. This raises concerns about the exhaustion of bullish strength during this process, which may affect the performance of bulls in the short term.
In terms of operations, looking at the overall situation, we are currently watching whether the resistance at 103500 can be surpassed in the short term. If it first touches this area, a short position can be taken. On the downside, if it touches around 101000 again, a long position can be taken. Essentially, we are still looking at a consolidation market.
Since Ethereum's mainnet upgrade, it has increasingly shown signs of an independent market. Without discussing other aspects, at least in the short term, there will be many opportunities even in the downward trend of Ethereum, and a short-term long position around 2380 can be considered for participation.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes are real-time; the information may be delayed, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact and discuss the market.】
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
