Source: Cointelegraph
Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) Expected to Reach $150,000 Price Surge as US and China Agree to Slash Tariffs”
Key Points:
Bitcoin (BTC) broke through $105,700 after the US and China agreed to cut tariffs.
The confirmed bullish flag breakout on the weekly chart suggests a target price of $150,000.
Bitwise's sentiment indicator warns of potential short-term overheating.
Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are celebrating significant progress in US-China tariff negotiations, as this digital asset first broke through the important threshold of $105,700 on May 12, reaching a four-month high, further validating the effectiveness of the bullish continuation pattern, with a target price aimed directly at $150,000.
The catalyst for Bitcoin's breakout appears to be the easing trade tensions between the US and China.
Over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng reached an agreement in Geneva to lower tariffs that have hindered bilateral trade for months.
According to the agreement, the US will significantly reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will also substantially lower tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%.
The immediate establishment of this trade agreement triggered a comprehensive market rebound, with S&P 500 futures rising 2.8% and the dollar exchange rate climbing 0.7%. In stark contrast, the price of gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, fell 2.3%, clearly indicating that investors are withdrawing from safe-haven assets and shifting towards risk assets.
Bitcoin (BTC), often viewed as a high-beta risk asset, had previously shown weakness under the pressure of the trade war, with cautious investor sentiment significantly suppressing inflows into the cryptocurrency market. Now, the easing of trade tensions signals improved liquidity and increased risk appetite, conditions that historically tend to create a favorable environment for Bitcoin's rise.
The current upward trend of Bitcoin perfectly aligns with the classic breakout pattern of a bullish flag on the weekly chart, which is a bullish continuation pattern formed during a downward consolidation within a parallel channel after a rapid upward movement.
In the specific case of Bitcoin, this flag pattern began after Bitcoin reached a nearly $110,000 high in January. This consolidation phase lasted for several months until early May, when the price broke through the upper resistance line of the flag pattern with moderate volume.
This breakout confirmed the continuation of the bullish trend, and according to pattern analysis, the upward target is now positioned around $150,000, calculated by adding the initial flagpole height to the breakout point.
Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), also show supportive trends, with the weekly RSI rebounding above 65, reflecting renewed buying pressure, but not yet entering the overbought zone above 70.
As market sentiment for Bitcoin becomes increasingly euphoric, some analysts are urging investors to remain cautious.
André Dragosch, Head of European Research at Bitwise, pointed out that the company's crypto asset sentiment index has reached its highest level since November 2024, a level that historically coincided with local market tops.
The chart shows that periods when sentiment peaked, such as in April 2022, October 2023, and November 2024, were followed by short-term pullbacks or sideways movements.
This phenomenon suggests that the persistently rising optimism in the market may have reached its limit, and while Bitcoin's long-term development prospects remain strong, the risk of a pullback in the short term is increasing.
As of May 12, Bitcoin's price is experiencing a pullback after breaking through the $107,000 mark, with its daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing clear overbought signals.
The next support target is around $100,000, perfectly aligning with its 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
If the price decisively breaks below this level, Bitcoin may test the lower exponential moving average (EMA) support, where the 20-day EMA (purple dashed line) is around $97,385, which will become the initial downside target.
Related: Analysis: Why Bitcoin (BTC) Price Dropped After Trump Announced US-China Tariff Agreement
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