Source: Cointelegraph
Original: “Analyst: Market Volatility Indicator Still Points to Bitcoin (BTC) Reaching $135,000 Within 100 Days”
Key Points:
After the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) dropped to 20, Bitcoin prices have continued to hold steady above the $100,000 mark, driven by a "risk appetite" sentiment.
The Bitcoin Bull Market Index surged to 80, while the Fear and Greed Index indicates that market optimism is continuously strengthening, with historical data patterns suggesting that prices may rise further.
Bitcoin prices have continued to consolidate above $100,000 after the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) fell from a peak of 60 in early 2025 to a 30-year average of 20. This significant decline followed the U.S.-China trade agreement reached on May 12, which introduced a 90-day tariff suspension period and a 115% tariff reduction for both parties.
Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index Chart. Source: X.com
According to Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson, this agreement effectively stimulated the market's "risk appetite" sentiment, boosting the performance of Bitcoin and the stock market as investors shifted towards high-risk assets. The analyst stated, "$VIX dropped significantly yesterday on potential China trade agreement news and has now returned to 'normal' levels. This will create a 'risk appetite' investment environment for the foreseeable future."
Further enhancing market bullish sentiment is the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate, which fell to 2.3% year-on-year in April 2025, marking the lowest level since February 2021, down from 2.4% in March and below the market expectation of 2.4%. This lower-than-expected CPI data clearly signals that inflation pressures are easing, which, assuming other economic indicators remain consistent, could significantly increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing interest rate cuts in 2025.
In terms of the current macroeconomic landscape—lower volatility, cooling inflation, and a temporary ceasefire in the trade war—has created an extremely favorable market environment for Bitcoin.
Earlier this month, Peterson noted that as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) dropped from 55 to 25, marking the formation of a "risk appetite" environment, BTC prices are expected to reach $135,000 within 100 days. His predictive model associates low VIX levels with increased investor confidence in risk assets like Bitcoin, achieving a high accuracy rate of 95%.
After experiencing the least active bullish phase in nearly two years in April, Bitcoin market sentiment has dramatically reversed, reaching its highest level since 2025. CryptoQuant data shows that the Bitcoin Bull Market Index sharply rose from 20 to 80, a level historically associated with significant price increases.
Bitcoin: Bull Market Index. Source: CryptoQuant
This shift is primarily driven by spot demand exceeding supply, reflecting a pattern similar to that observed after the halving in April 2024, suggesting that Bitcoin may be poised for further upward movement.
Similarly, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr pointed out that although the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is steadily climbing, currently at 53.3%, it is still far from the "overheated" zone of over 80%. The analyst explored the potential "uptrend" in the market and expressed expectations for Bitcoin to successfully test and break through the historical high near $110,000.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) is just one rise away from setting a new high, but overly exuberant bulls signal a "heated" market.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
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