The "prophet" of the crypto market, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, has put forward a significant viewpoint in his latest blog and Cointelegraph interview: Bitcoin will sprint to $1 million before 2028, becoming a "hardcore anchor" for global asset allocation. He pointed out that the return of foreign capital, the devaluation frenzy of U.S. Treasury bonds, and geopolitical games will collectively ignite this epic bull market. However, Hayes sternly warned of the risks of a short-term market overheating or a potential pullback, indicating that a tactical shorting window is emerging. At the same time, he is heavily invested in the DeFi sector, with $PENDLE and $ETHFI seen as potential dark horses that could outperform Bitcoin.

The Macro Narrative of One Million Dollars

Hayes' prediction of a million dollars is not unfounded but is based on a profound insight into the global economic landscape. In a Cointelegraph interview on May 9, he pointed out that the U.S. Treasury, rather than the Federal Reserve, has become the "behind-the-scenes operator" influencing the crypto market. High U.S. Treasury yields and an abundance of dollar liquidity are eroding the attractiveness of traditional assets, and Bitcoin, as an "anti-inflation fortress," will see a frenzy of foreign capital inflow. Notably, China may indirectly boost the prices of risk assets through a large amount of credit released via Hong Kong, with the crypto market being the first to benefit.

The 2028 U.S. presidential election is another major catalyst in Hayes' view. He believes that the policy uncertainty brought about by the election will exacerbate the chaos of global capital flows, while Bitcoin's decentralized nature makes it the preferred safe-haven asset. However, internal disagreements within the Trump administration regarding capital controls could lead to policy swings, causing significant market volatility in the short term. Hayes specifically mentioned that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's trade negotiation plans could undermine dollar hegemony, indirectly paving the way for Bitcoin's rise.

Short-Term Shorting Window: Liquidity Trap

Despite his long-term bullish outlook, Hayes remains highly vigilant about the short-term market. In his blog, he analyzed that the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, combined with overheated market sentiment, could trigger a 10%-15% pullback in the coming months. He advises investors to closely monitor dollar liquidity indicators, such as the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) and the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, to capture shorting opportunities. Previously, Hayes accurately predicted the market peak in early 2025, showcasing his impressive grasp of liquidity cycles.

Hayes further pointed out that the game of capital controls and money printing in the second half of 2025 will intensify, potentially leading to "false breakouts" or "bull traps" in the market. He warned that inconsistencies within the Trump team regarding capital controls could create confusion in policy signals, and investors should be wary of the risk of "buying high and getting trapped." Flexibly using leverage or derivatives for hedging may be a wise move to cope with short-term volatility.

PENDLE and ETHFI: The Twin Stars of the DeFi Sector

In terms of asset allocation, Hayes revealed that Bitcoin accounts for about 60% of his portfolio, with the remaining 20% betting on high-potential altcoins, among which $PENDLE and $ETHFI are the focus of his recent investments. $PENDLE, as a yield tokenization protocol, has emerged in the DeFi space with its innovative interest rate derivatives market, with its Total Value Locked (TVL) growing over 300% since early 2025. Meanwhile, $ETHFI has benefited from the explosion of the EigenLayer re-staking ecosystem, attracting both institutional and retail interest. Hayes believes that these two projects have the potential for 20x returns in a bull market, far exceeding Bitcoin's steady appreciation.

In the interview, he emphasized that the explosion of the DeFi sector is due to the continuous innovation within the Ethereum ecosystem. $PENDLE provides users with flexible yield strategies by splitting yield rights and principal rights, while $ETHFI unlocks Ethereum's potential value through its re-staking mechanism. Hayes predicts that as U.S. Treasury yields decline, Ethereum and its ecosystem projects will become more attractive.

Investment Strategy and Risk Warning

Hayes' insights provide investors with a clear roadmap. In the long term, he suggests capturing the million-dollar dividend through dollar-cost averaging in Bitcoin while selectively investing in DeFi projects to diversify risk. In the short term, he recommends paying attention to macro indicators such as the USD/JPY exchange rate to avoid liquidity traps. For ordinary investors, Hayes emphasizes the importance of disciplined investing to avoid emotional buying and selling.

This article represents the author's personal views and does not reflect the stance or views of this platform. This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.

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