Today's homework is not easy to write, mainly because there are differences arising from Powell's speech. It's not just the friends in the discussion who have ambiguities; there are also different interpretations in the English-speaking world regarding this speech. However, regardless of how we interpret it, it is all about predicting the future developments of the Federal Reserve. I particularly agree with a viewpoint from Brother Wu @qinbafrank, which is to observe how the bond market behaves.

No matter how we understand it or whether we guess Powell's intentions correctly, it doesn't matter. What matters is how the market interprets it, and the market's understanding has shown two opposing sides. From the bond market perspective, the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond has started to decline significantly, indicating that the market expects the Federal Reserve will not maintain high interest rates for a long time.

Moreover, the probability of not lowering interest rates in July on CME has also decreased. Both the bond market and the futures market believe that Powell is adopting a dovish stance, suggesting that Powell's adjustment aims to raise inflation by 2%. However, the U.S. stock market has shown different expectations, with the Nasdaq and S&P experiencing varying degrees of pullback, especially the S&P, which has shifted from rising to falling. This has also led to $BTC temporarily dropping below $103,000, while gold is on the rise.

This indicates that some investors believe the Federal Reserve may continue to maintain a tight policy, leading to a certain level of uncertainty in the market.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate has not increased; instead, it has decreased, indicating that most investors are still uninterested in short-term price changes or even Powell's speech. More investors seem to be focused on longer-term price trends.

After maintaining fluctuations around $102,000 for a long time, there has been a buildup around this core level. However, these investors are still primarily short-term traders, which can currently form effective support. The most stable support level remains between $93,000 and $98,000.

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