Still the old topic, Bitcoin or gold, which would you buy?

Since April 2025, the trends of gold and Bitcoin have clearly diverged: from the beginning of the year to early May, gold has accumulated an increase of nearly 30%, while Bitcoin has only risen about 4%. However, after late April, the trend reversed—J.P. Morgan analysts pointed out that since late April, Bitcoin has rapidly rebounded (with an increase of nearly 18% by mid-May), while gold has seen a pullback (down about 8% since April 22). In terms of specific prices, Bitcoin's price briefly surpassed $104,000 in early May, approaching the record high at the beginning of the year (about $107,000); meanwhile, gold prices fell back due to multiple factors. Particularly after progress was made in U.S.-China trade negotiations on May 12, market risk aversion eased, and the London gold price dropped from about $3,394/ounce on May 7 to $3,127/ounce on May 15, with a cumulative decline of 7.8%. Overall, the divergent performance of gold under pressure and Bitcoin maintaining strength after May 12 has become a prominent feature of the recent market. J.P. Morgan's analysis suggests that during this phase, investors have diverged in their "currency devaluation" hedging strategies, transforming the previous resonance between gold and Bitcoin into a zero-sum game, with Bitcoin gaining the upper hand.

![Bitcoin counterattack, gold retreat: institutions begin to re-bet on who is the "true safe haven"aicoinimage1](https://static.aicoinstorge.com/article/20250516/174736454566266.png "Bitcoin counterattack, gold retreat: institutions begin to re-bet on who is the "true safe haven"aicoinimage1")

![Bitcoin counterattack, gold retreat: institutions begin to re-bet on who is the "true safe haven"aicoinimage2](https://static.aicoinstorge.com/article/20250516/174736467749501.png "Bitcoin counterattack, gold retreat: institutions begin to re-bet on who is the "true safe haven"aicoinimage2")​​​​​​​

ETF Fund Flows and Institutional Allocation

The fund flows further highlight the aforementioned divergence. Taking the United States as an example, Bitcoin spot ETF funds are pouring in on a large scale, while gold ETF inflows remain relatively stable. Data shows that BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has seen a net inflow of nearly $6.9 billion since the beginning of the year, surpassing the global largest gold ETF GLD (about $6.5 billion) during the same period. Mid-May single-day data also reflects fund preferences: on May 15, IBIT attracted about $410 million in a single day, while Fidelity's FBTC saw an outflow of $124 million during the same period. Overall, IBIT has become the main force in attracting funds—by early May, its asset size had risen to about $62.9 billion, with a cumulative inflow of $4.7 billion over 17 consecutive trading days, totaling about $6.9 billion for the year. In contrast, while the capital increment for traditional gold ETFs continues, the pace has slowed. The SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) currently has a scale of about $101 billion; global gold ETFs increased by about $11 billion in April (with five consecutive months of net inflow), but mid-May saw a potential cooling in gold ETF inflows as risk aversion demand receded.

Overall, there is a trend of capital migrating from gold to crypto assets. Media such as CoinDesk point out that despite the impressive rise in gold, institutions still favor Bitcoin, with IBIT inflows surpassing GLD. J.P. Morgan notes that funds have clearly flowed out of gold ETFs and into Bitcoin. This phenomenon is evident in the ETF holding data: besides IBIT, other Bitcoin ETFs have also gained inflows, while the growth of gold ETF funds, although steady, has relatively declined. Some investors are beginning to view Bitcoin as part of their "digital gold" allocation, with capital rebalancing between the two.

Macroeconomic Background Analysis

The macro environment plays a key role in the prices of gold, silver, and Bitcoin. First, the Federal Reserve's policy expectations remain tight. A report from Morgan Stanley in early April stated that the Fed is not expected to cut interest rates in 2025. The high interest rate environment suppresses the returns of traditional safe-haven assets (such as gold). Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields remain volatile at high levels—the 10-year Treasury yield hovers around 4.4%, causing various assets to "lose the advantage of low-cost financing." The U.S. dollar index also remains strong. Analysis from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange suggests that the U.S. dollar index will fluctuate at high levels in 2025: on May 14, the dollar index closed at about 101, mainly due to stronger U.S. economic performance and widening interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Europe/Japan. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan continue to implement loose policies, directing global funds toward the U.S. market, further solidifying the dollar's safe-haven status. A strong dollar typically exerts pressure on gold: with the dollar remaining robust, gold prices are under pressure and difficult to rebound significantly. Additionally, the trade policies of the Trump administration (such as the aforementioned tariff negotiations) have also impacted capital allocation in the short term by altering global trade costs. In summary, the Fed's maintenance of a tightening tone and the continued strength of the dollar create constraints on gold while providing support for Bitcoin as an "alternative safe haven" or "risk asset."

Market Structure and Changes in Risk Appetite

In terms of market structure, the definition of "safe-haven assets" is undergoing subtle changes. Bitcoin's position in institutional portfolios is rapidly rising, intensifying discussions about "Bitcoin replacing gold." Asset management institutions like Barclays and Fidelity are more openly planning to heavily invest in crypto assets; J.P. Morgan's analysis indicates that corporations and local governments are actively increasing their Bitcoin reserves (e.g., New Hampshire allowing 5% reserve allocation to Bitcoin, Arizona establishing Bitcoin reserves, etc.), indicating that Bitcoin is being viewed as a potential diversification tool. From the perspective of ETF flows, as mentioned earlier, Bitcoin ETFs are attracting more funds than gold ETFs, with some commentators even predicting that in the next 3–5 years, the scale of Bitcoin ETFs will reach several times that of gold ETFs. These trends suggest that some investors have begun to consider Bitcoin as an alternative safe-haven asset.

However, there are also viewpoints urging caution: despite Bitcoin being referred to as "digital gold," its short-term price volatility is closely related to risk assets (especially the Nasdaq index). CME analysis indicates that Bitcoin and other high-volatility assets are often packaged together, and when the Nasdaq declines, Bitcoin is often sold off to cover risk positions. This means that Bitcoin currently still exhibits a high-risk appetite characteristic and has not completely detached from the framework of risk assets. In contrast, gold's dual attributes of "anti-inflation + safe haven" continue to be favored by central banks and conservative investors.

In conclusion, the risk aversion logic of institutional investors is evolving: on one hand, global trade frictions and inflation expectations provide long-term demand for gold; on the other hand, Bitcoin, as an emerging asset, is gaining increasing safe-haven value due to massive capital inflows and policy support. J.P. Morgan even judges that this has become a "zero-sum game," with Bitcoin having a greater likelihood of outperforming gold in the future. However, the market is still in an exploratory phase, and whether a true "Bitcoin replacing gold" scenario will emerge remains to be validated by future trends.

This article only represents the author's personal views and does not reflect the stance and views of this platform. This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.

Join our community to discuss this event

Official Telegram community: t.me/aicoincn

Chat room: Wealth Group

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。