As $BTC once again breaks through $100,000, the Bitcoin ecosystem is ushering in a new wave of prosperity, and market enthusiasm is completely ignited. $ORDI, $SATS, and $DOG have all surged, demonstrating strong investor demand for Bitcoin's native assets. As the leading token of the Runes2.0 #Alkanes@oylwallet protocol, #METHANE has surpassed a market cap of $16 million, laying a solid market foundation for a new round of "protocol wars."
So, what kind of protocols will explode in the Bitcoin ecosystem and help it thrive?
There should be four key points:
1. Bitcoin Layer1: The protocol must be based on Bitcoin Layer1 and support Bitcoin's native assets.
2. Bitcoin DeFi: It should provide native DeFi functions such as AMM and lending, unlocking the potential of $BTC and supporting decentralized trading, derivatives, and governance.
3. Open Source: The code must be open source, hosted on GitHub, relying on Layer1 security to ensure no vulnerabilities and enhance community trust.
4. Bitcoin Mainnet: The Bitcoin mainnet must be online, have a token, and stimulate community enthusiasm, recognized and trusted through community and market practice.
The explosion of Alkanes also validates these four points.
The three major narratives of the Bitcoin2.0 ecosystem: Runes2.0, BRC2.0, and OP_CAT have met all conditions for explosion except for the mainnet launch. So, which one will be the next to explode? This will be a race against time.
BRC2.0: The official @bestinslotxyz has clearly stated that it will launch on the Bitcoin mainnet in Q4 2025, introducing EVM and supporting scenarios such as DeFi, RWA, and DAO, with strong market expectations.
#OP_CAT: The activation time has yet to be determined, with predictions suggesting it may activate next year.
Runes2.0: #Alkanes has already launched on the Bitcoin mainnet, while #RSM (Runes State Machine) @RSM_Runes, known as the "twin star" of Alkanes, has been frequently updating its code, indicating a strong possibility of launching in Q2 or Q3 of 2025.
In the new round of the Bitcoin ecosystem's "protocol wars," various performances of #RSM suggest it will launch on the Bitcoin mainnet even earlier, becoming the next explosion point after #Alkanes.
RSM: Programmable Runes Solution
Advantages
1. Runes2.0 Concept
One of the twin stars of Runes2.0: RSM is based on Runes, enhancing the programmability of Runes and expanding application scenarios. Its roadmap is as follows:
RSM proposes a Turing-complete state machine mechanism, supporting complex smart contracts, decentralized computing, and DAO governance.
RSM drives Runes2.0 from simple "token issuance + trading" to a broader decentralized finance and application ecosystem, injecting new vitality into the Bitcoin ecosystem.
2. Born for Bitcoin DeFi
RSM's design goal: to provide infrastructure for DeFi in the Bitcoin ecosystem, unlocking the potential of BTC as a native asset. Currently, the DeFi ecosystems of Ethereum and Solana rely on smart contracts and Layer 2 solutions, while Bitcoin's DeFi is limited by insufficient programmability of Layer1. RSM fills this gap, specifically by supporting complex on-chain logic through a Turing-complete state machine, such as AMM, on-chain derivatives, and DAO governance.
RSM is committed to building a Bitcoin-native DeFi ecosystem, making significant breakthroughs in the universality of smart contracts.
3. Open Source, Building an Open Source Ord Client Based on Casey
The diversity of the Runes2.0 ecosystem is reflected in its technical foundation.
RSM is built on the Runes protocol on ORD, providing on-chain metadata support for Runes. By introducing a Turing-complete state machine, it allows developers to write complex on-chain programs. The code is fully open source, hosted on GitHub, facilitating community review and reference.
If Casey @rodarmor wants to officially upgrade Runes, RSM's openness and technological foresight make it an ideal choice for the official upgrade, as RSM directly extends the existing infrastructure of Ordinals and Runes, ensuring strong compatibility and easier implementation of smart contract functions.
4. Support from Many Influencers
The rise of the project relies on community and key influencer support, providing strong market momentum for it to become the next breakout point.
Both RSM and Alkanes have deep connections with Casey @rodarmor (founder of Ordinals) and domo @domodata (founder of BRC-20).
RSM has also gained support from numerous overseas influencers, including Bob @BobBodily, founder of ODIN.FUN, ᴛʜᴇ ʙʟᴏᴄᴋ ʀᴜɴɴᴇʀ Podcast @TheBlockRunner, OnChain podcast host Shizzy @ShizzyOnChain, businessman @businessmanet, Francis Dhun @TheCryptoLif7, and others.
5. Upcoming Launch on Bitcoin Mainnet
RSM's launch on the Bitcoin mainnet, with a fair token launch, will allow the community to participate, igniting enthusiasm and truly validating it in the market, completing the final condition for explosion.
Challenges
1. High Technical Complexity
RSM's Turing-complete mechanism is powerful but has a high development difficulty, with immature tools and documentation that may slow down developer adoption. Basic development tools need to be improved quickly after launch.
2. Long Bitcoin Block Time
The slow block confirmation speed of the Bitcoin mainnet is a common challenge faced by all Layer1s, and RSM is no exception. It may need to collaborate with Layer2 or enhance speed through sequencers like BRC2.0, requiring a technical breakthrough.
3. Community and Market Validation
Project explosion requires community support. RSM's openness and decentralization attributes necessitate active community participation. Currently, RSM has not yet formed a strong community of significant scale, which is related to the project not being launched on the Bitcoin mainnet. However, with Alkanes paving the way for the Runes2.0 market, RSM will have explosive potential when it launches.
Outlook
1. High Probability of Short-term Explosion
RSM is expected to launch in Q2 or Q3 of 2025, earlier than BRC2.0 and OP_CAT, potentially igniting the market with the Runes2.0 wave and #METHANE validation.
2. Becoming the Official Runes 2.0 Upgrade
RSM's openness and compatibility may make it the foundation for the official Runes upgrade, similar to Ethereum's EVM, attracting many developers.
3. Helping Bitcoin DApp Ecosystem Explode
RSM supports complex DApps, building a Bitcoin-native DeFi, challenging Ethereum's position, and helping Bitcoin transform from a value storage to a decentralized application platform, achieving the "Ethereum moment" alongside the three major narratives of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Summary
The "protocol wars" in the Bitcoin ecosystem are entering a heated stage, with Runes2.0 gaining market heat through Alkanes' technological breakthroughs. RSM is expected to spark a new wave of excitement in Q2 or Q3 of 2025. In the future, as BRC2.0 and OP_CAT gradually land, the Bitcoin2.0 ecosystem will welcome even greater prosperity.
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