"Sell in May and go away," goes the Wall Street adage for equity markets every summer. For bitcoin BTC, though, some analysts say this season could mark a break from tradition.
"As we get into the European summer months, the sense is it's more likely a case of 'buy in May and go away' than any significant headwinds or selling pressure," said Paul Howard, director at crypto trading firm Wincent in a market note.
A confluence of positive regulatory developments around digital assets in the U.S. and increasing institutional buying both via exchange-traded funds and spot allocation is poised to push BTC higher in the next months, Howard said.
U.S.-traded spot bitcoin ETFs, for example, pulled in $667 million in net inflows on Monday with BTC pausing just below its January record, underscoring persistent demand, he noted. The vehicles attracted $3.3 billion in May, per SoSoValue. On top of that, there's been a flurry of companies joining Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) adding bitcoin to their treasury, financed by debt and stock issuances.
"As we edge closer to a $4 trillion market cap for digital assets, we will see BTC cross all-time-highs in the coming weeks," Howard said. The total crypto market cap currently stands at around $3.3 trillion, per TradingView data.
Historically, summer months have been slow for crypto assets, but macro and political forces are also converging in ways that could disrupt the typical seasonal lull, analysts at crypto analytics firm Kaiko pointed out.
The Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision in June will precede Donald Trump's July 9 tariff deadline for trade partners, both of which could trigger market-wide volatility, the report said.
Bitcoin options markets are already flashing signs of investor anticipation, Kaiko analysts said. Strike prices at $110,000 and $120,000 for the June 27 expiry have drawn heavy volume, suggesting bets on BTC making a record-breaking move, the report noted.
Bitcoin briefly topped $107,000 during the Tuesday session, gaining 1.2% over the past 24 hours and trading just 2% below its January record high.
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