⚡️I just came across this image, and there’s a key number — SOMA: $14,825,704,800.

Many people don’t understand what this means. The core question is simple: Has the Federal Reserve secretly started QE again?

In simple terms, technically, yes; mechanism-wise, not really; in terms of market structure, it hasn’t stopped at all.

Let me give you an example to clarify —

Your household decides to pay off a maximum of 5,000 yuan in loans each month (QT limit), but one month, suddenly, 8,000 yuan in debt is due.

You can’t default, so you make up the 3,000 yuan to continue “buying” part of the debt, and then slowly pay it back, ensuring you don’t exceed that 5,000 yuan budget limit.

This 3,000 yuan is the “SOMA add-on.”

An increase in SOMA replenishment means QT is starting to hesitate. What the Federal Reserve is doing now is this: they talk about QT, but in reality, they are secretly buying bonds to replenish. The pretense of balance sheet reduction remains, but the marginal liquidity is turning.

Since March, the QT reduction limit has dropped from 25 billion to 5 billion, signaling to the market: “I can’t reduce too quickly for fear of causing issues.”

This replenishment operation is different from the proactive liquidity injection (QE) we usually see; it doesn’t count as QE in mechanism, but in market impact, the effect may not differ much — it’s still injecting money.

Because the market doesn’t care whether it’s QE or not; it looks at whether you are continuing to throw liquidity into the system.

So, there’s no need to wait for the Federal Reserve to officially announce “we are restarting QE.” Just watch them buy back bonds out of fear of stalling, and you’ll know —

The next round of the liquidity cycle has already quietly begun in the details.

What it’s called doesn’t matter; what matters is that the money is coming in.

It’s like the Federal Reserve doesn’t want to provide more fuel, but realizes that if the car stalls too quickly, it will flip over, so they start secretly adding a little gas.

And #Bitcoin is like a passenger sitting on the roof of the car:

You can stop driving, but as long as the car is moving, it will soar!

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