Last week, we also looked at the impact of long-term holding of BTC on its price, especially the data for positions held for over a year, which provides very good guidance for determining the upper range of BTC prices. From the current data, the BTC in this range has continued to decrease over the past week, and according to the results of the counteraction, it indicates that the price of $BTC is likely still at a high point, and there is even a possibility of further increases.

However, this data does have a slight lag and cannot provide the highest peak for exiting, but it is still very accurate as a relative peak. Moreover, from the current data, there are no signs of BTC held for over a year starting to increase. The second distribution should not be over yet, but it is important to note that the current market is still more affected by events, and a negative news could lead to a market crash at any time. Therefore, the data is more for reference and cannot be the sole standard for judgment.

For price judgment, macro factors, politics, tariffs, and monetary policy are currently the most important. Especially Trump's every word and action could impact the market.

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