On the morning of May 22, 2025, local time, the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed a landmark tax reform bill pushed by President Donald Trump, with a vote of 215 to 214, marking a political thriller. This massive multi-trillion-dollar package aims not only to extend the approximately $4.5 trillion tax cut policy enacted during Trump's 2017 term but also to introduce several new tax cuts promised during the campaign, including exemptions for tips, overtime pay, and car loan interest taxes. However, the cost of this victory is a $4 trillion increase in the U.S. debt ceiling, with the Treasury warning that without timely adjustments, the U.S. could face a debt default risk as early as August or September. The bill has now been submitted to the Senate, where the Republican Party is facing pressure to make amendments, with the final vote before August becoming a focal point.

House of Representatives Game: One Vote Determines Everything

According to Jinshi Data and several media reports, this House vote serves as a litmus test for Trump's governing ability. The 215 to 214 vote result exposes deep fractures within the Republican Party. Although the Republicans control the House, significant factional divisions exist, particularly around the controversy over the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap, leading to a bumpy path for the bill's advancement. Trump personally intervened, mediating between the party's conservatives and moderates, and even expressed "frustration" over the SALT deduction cap debate, barely facilitating the bill's passage.

The core content of the bill includes: making the 2017 tax cuts permanent, adding exemptions for tips and overtime pay, exempting seniors from Social Security taxes, tax deductions for purchasing American-made vehicles, and $175 billion for border security and immigration enforcement, including completing the construction of the U.S.-Mexico border wall. The Republicans claim this will stimulate economic growth and alleviate the burden on the middle class. However, the Democrats criticize the bill as "robbing the poor to pay the rich," arguing that it clearly favors high-income groups and that significant cuts to social spending will harm low-income families.

Senate Amendments: Time is Tight, Factional Struggles Intensify

The bill has now been handed over to the Senate, where Republicans are urging significant amendments. Senators plan to complete voting before August, but the time window is narrow. The Treasury predicts that without raising the $4 trillion debt ceiling, the U.S. could face a default crisis in August or September, adding urgency to the legislative process.

Within the Senate, the divisions between Republican conservatives and moderates are more pronounced. Some members are calling for a re-examination of the tax deduction provisions in the bill, particularly the SALT issue. Conservatives believe that the current bill poses too high a risk of fiscal deficit, which could further increase the U.S. debt burden. Analysis suggests that if the bill is fully implemented, it could increase the federal deficit by trillions of dollars over the next decade, causing fluctuations in the S&P 500 and U.S. Treasury prices.

Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social, urging the Senate to "act quickly," stating that "there is no time to waste." He referred to the bill as "the most important legislation in American history," attempting to leverage his personal influence to drive the process. However, the coordination difficulties among factions such as the "Freedom Caucus" and the "Republican Study Committee" may become the biggest obstacle to amending the bill.

Outlook and Controversy: Trump's Gamble

The House's passage of Trump's tax reform bill marks his first significant legislative victory in his second term, demonstrating his control over the Republican Party. However, the pressure for amendments in the Senate, factional struggles within the party, and the urgency of the debt ceiling create uncertainty for the bill's future. The Democrats warn that if the bill is not properly balanced, it could damage the social welfare system and exacerbate the wealth gap.

Join our community to discuss this event

Official Telegram community: t.me/aicoincn

Chat room: Wealth Group

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。