I estimate that within 20-30 years, China will achieve military dominance over the United States. This speculation is based on the continuation of the development speed of military technology in both countries over the past 20 years, and once this speed gap is fully realized, it will be impossible to catch up.

This is reflected in two aspects:

One is the technological generational gap in conventional military capabilities, which is at least 0.5 to 1 generation. For example, China's fifth-generation fighter jets may already be the main combat aircraft (equivalent to the current position of the J-10/J-16), with sixth-generation fighters occupying a significant portion, and seventh-generation fighters beginning to be deployed. There will also be a half to one generation gap in submarines, warships, and other areas.

The second aspect is nuclear capability; China may develop a defensive capability against nuclear weapons. At that point, nuclear deterrence will become unidirectionally transparent.

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