Key Summary:
Bitcoin researcher Sminston With stated that Bitcoin could rise by 100% to 200%, with cycle peaks between $220,000 and $330,000.
Bitcoin continues to exhibit strong cyclical volatility characteristics, contrasting sharply with the common view that price fluctuations diminish over time.
Long-term holders have transferred over $4 billion in Bitcoin, which may indicate an impending price correction.
Sminston With's analysis suggests that there is still a 100% to 200% upside potential for Bitcoin price peaks from the current price. In a recent post on the X platform, With shared a Bitcoin price chart that combines the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) with a power law model (R²=0.96).
The model indicates that Bitcoin prices follow a predictable non-random pattern, which is fundamentally different from the exponential growth models typically applied to stocks and equity assets.
The chart reveals that Bitcoin's 365-day SMA typically reaches 2 to 3 times the power law trend line at each market cycle. Considering that the Bitcoin price was $110,000 on May 27, the model predicts that this cycle's peak is expected to reach between $220,000 and $330,000. This prediction aligns with historical patterns, as Bitcoin has consistently significantly surpassed this trend line during bull market phases, providing investors with an optimistic market outlook.
The second chart in the post highlights the deviation of Bitcoin prices from the power law fitting line, showing stable cyclical fluctuations, with sustained highs not exhibiting exponential decay.
This finding challenges the common perception that Bitcoin price volatility gradually smooths over time, indicating that the volatility of this cryptocurrency remains a core characteristic and may trigger significant price fluctuations in the coming months.
In the third quarter of 2024, when Bitcoin is trading at around $60,000, With accurately predicts that Bitcoin will break the six-figure price in January 2025. This analysis studies the performance of Bitcoin at various cycle peaks to assess each diminishing peak.
The diminishing period in the investment cycle refers to the point when the returns of a certain strategy decline due to widespread adoption, ultimately reaching a peak where asset values sharply drop, triggering large-scale profit-taking behavior.
The quarterly price targets outlined by With in this study are summarized as follows.
The researcher specifically emphasizes that his study is based solely on data from four market cycles, so investors should maintain a cautious attitude.
According to Glassnode data, long-term holders (LTHs) of Bitcoin have transferred $4.02 billion in Bitcoin, marking the largest expenditure from the 1 to 5-year holding group since February 2025. This significant increase is primarily driven by the 3 to 5-year holding group ($2.16 billion), ranking fifth in this cycle, only behind previous expenditure peaks, such as the $9.25 billion recorded in October 2024.
The total expenditure from the 2 to 3-year and 1 to 2-year holding groups contributed $1.41 billion and $450 million, respectively.
As shown in the chart, the spending behavior of long-term holders typically coincides with price peaks, indicating a profit-taking phenomenon in the market, with Bitcoin currently struggling to maintain its position above $110,000.
However, if this capital migration coincides with an increase in Bitcoin exchange reserves, it could trigger more severe price fluctuations. Currently, the total amount of Bitcoin held by exchanges continues to decline.
From a technical analysis perspective, since Bitcoin's price bottomed at $74,500, it has maintained a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, forming a consolidation range after each new high before the next breakout.
The current price adjustment reflects this pattern, with the recent local low at $107,300, a level that was marked as a local high ten days ago. However, Bitcoin may soon face a deeper adjustment.
Based on historical data analysis, anonymous cryptocurrency trader TXMC points out that Bitcoin may be nearing the end of a trend of consecutive up weeks. The analyst stated, "Since 2013, Bitcoin has been able to maintain consecutive up weeks for a maximum of seven to eight weeks before a correction or consolidation. Last week was the 7th week."
Related: Essential prerequisites for building a decentralized exchange (DEX): Improving security solutions
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Bitcoin Analyst Says BTC Price Peak Still Possible in $220K to $330K Range”
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