Toncoin TON took a sharp dive in the last 24-hours, falling more than 7% from $3.319 to a low just under the $3 mark after as excitement around a rumored Telegram partnership with Elon Musk’s xAI reversed course.

The plunge is the continuation of one that started shortly after Telegram CEO Pavel Durov hinted at a collaboration with xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company.

The speculation pushed TON’s price up to a $3.65 high, but a swift denial from Musk sent it tumbling, after the CEO of X said that the deal hasn’t yet been signed. TON is now down 17% since.

Markets appear to be pricing in the collapse of what could have been a major integration involving Telegram’s 700 million users shortly after, nearly reversing all of the gains TON saw.

Despite the setback, Durov quickly replied that the deal has been “agreed in principle,” and that “formalities are pending.” TON is the native token of The Open Network, which is heavily associated with Durov’s messaging app.

TON’s fundamentals remain in motion. Telegram is still moving ahead with TON-based in-app payments, offering users a way to send crypto like messages.

That exposure, while long-term, positions TON as one of the few projects with potential access to a major mainstream user base.

Price levels between $3.00 and $3.22 are now key to watch. A breakdown or breakout from that range could signal the next move, especially as on-chain data shows significant wallet concentration around $3.24, where nearly 740 million tokens are held across 1.21 million addresses, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez.

Telegram has this week raised $1.7 billion via convertible bonds. The firm plans to use $955 million to buy back existing bonds, and fuel its growth with the remaining $745 million.

Technical Analysis Breakdown

• TON saw a sharp sell-off, with volume surging to over 10.6 million in a single hour, nearly tripling its average volume.
• Buyers stepped in at the $3.00 mark, helping the token climb back to $3.086, forming a V-shaped recovery.
• A brief resistance formed at $3.22, while bullish momentum pushed the token above $3.08 during an intense surge
• TON perpetual futures open interest rose 33% to $190 million, reaching its highest point since February, indicating traders are bracing for further volatility.

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