The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui talking about coins, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome everyone's attention and likes, and reject any market smoke bombs!

It has been a long time since I analyzed the market trends with everyone. Today, I will explain the recent trends and make a simple prediction for the future. The trend in May seems to have led everyone to enter a bull market phase early, causing many short-sellers to suffer some losses. Today, I will combine an overall financial perspective to provide a comprehensive prediction. First, let's look at the macro level and its impact on the crypto space. The biggest influences are undoubtedly two, both related to American strategies. First is the CPI data for May; the data for April was fabricated, and we need not say more. It can be said that the data for May and June will directly affect the process of interest rate cuts. These two months are likely to average out the inflation and unemployment data from April, and it is highly probable that the data for both months will not look good. It is expected that the probability of increasing interest rate cuts will be pursued. The so-called speculation about a single interest rate cut this year should not be overly trusted. Lao Cui's view is to consider two interest rate cuts this year as the standard. Regardless of how the future trends unfold, as long as there are two interest rate cuts this year, the peak in the crypto space will definitely come. However, do not hold too high hopes for June to sustain new highs for Bitcoin; this path will be difficult to navigate.

The only thing that can keep Bitcoin from falling in June is the passage of the stablecoin bill, which may cause a short-term rise. In the short term, the only way to supplement large funds is through the effects of the bill. Lao Cui estimates that the difficulty of passing in June is relatively high, and we can only see if it can be implemented in July. If there is no substantial capital injection in June, it is highly probable that the market will mainly experience a correction. The closest possibility for a reversal influenced by public opinion is the American interest rate cut in Congress, but that is still too far away, as we are already approaching mid to late June, around the 17th to 19th. If there is no capital injection in between, the market may mainly experience a correction, and a prolonged decline will continue to occur. Let me clarify to everyone that there cannot be a bear market this year; you must not choose to focus on shorting. If a short position incurs a loss later on and is not exited in time, it may deplete all the chips in your hands. From the simplest perspective, the major events in the crypto space this year are almost the most capital-accumulating since the formation of blockchain. Whether it is the market into which stablecoins will flow after issuance or the large funds' choices after interest rate cuts, Ethereum will occupy a certain position. This year indeed has the highest hope of setting a historical new high.

Including the recent performance of Nvidia, everyone needs to find commonalities. As the impact of tariffs between China and the U.S. gradually dissipates, Nvidia's market value has once again reclaimed the top spot. The core key is still due to the contribution of AI chips. It can be said that in the next five years, the demand for computing power will likely increase, and with the explosion of technology, blockchain technology will usher in an epic enhancement. Looking at the mechanisms of Pow and Pos from earlier, it seems that Pos may be more robust. The encryption model of Bitcoin will one day be conquered by the enhancement of computing power, but Ethereum, with more participants joining, will continuously optimize the process, making it at least safer than Pow. The overall increase in computing power will impact the major trends in the crypto space. The future packaging block fees may decrease, and the deciphering capabilities of some old coins may face challenges. For those of you holding a large number of uncalculated coins, try to reduce your holdings. The impact on Bitcoin is not too great, as there are only about a million coins left. Meanwhile, from the recent capital flow, most traditional enterprises still choose to enter the crypto space, and the phenomenon of capital inflow is still quite clear. A significant piece of news is the SEC's postponement of the decision meeting for other ETFs.

Many friends have overly pessimistic interpretations of the SEC's attitude and still need to understand it objectively. Before Ethereum's listing, the SEC also maintained a questioning attitude. You need to see the essence; the SEC organization is under the Federal Reserve, not the Federal Reserve itself, and Trump has always been committed to the development of the crypto space, which will not create obstacles. The postponement is merely due to two major factors. One is to wait for the interest rate cuts to come, to promote the listing of other coins in conjunction with the interest rate cuts. This point was already raised during the analysis of SOL. At the beginning of the year, I also communicated with everyone that the listing of SOL in the first half of the year would likely encounter resistance, and passing it would be a matter for the second half of the year, just postponed to a decision in September, which is also a highly probable date for interest rate cuts. You can trace back the entire process, which will also help you understand finance. The second factor is that the core personnel of the SEC are facing a change; the focus is still on not wanting to take responsibility, while also giving Atkins a chance to perform. Including the SEC's questioning of the data issues under the Ethereum and SOL systems, these in Lao Cui's eyes are all smoke bombs, just like the series of measures this year, from initially two interest rate cuts to one, and then to no interest rate cuts, all of which are merely to prevent retail investors from grasping too much information. Even yesterday, Powell's speech did not mention the cryptocurrency market at all, which can reveal some clues.

Many friends also feel that Lao Cui's views on American data issues are too subjective, always thinking that American data cannot be fabricated. Lao Cui will quote Trump's original words questioning Powell on May 29: "The current Federal Reserve has anchored interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, which is the highest in twenty years. Powell's team insists on 'waiting for inflation to fall significantly,' but Trump's camp points out contradictory data: the core PCE price index in April only rose by 2.1% year-on-year, close to the Federal Reserve's target, while the GDP growth rate in the first quarter slowed to 1.6%. This statement requires a certain economic foundation to understand why GDP growth is slowing under rising price indices. Price increases should drive GDP growth. These two sets of data can only indicate that one set of data has a problem. It is easier to understand in conjunction with tariffs; the increase in tariffs causes price growth, making the increase in the price index easy to understand. The problem with GDP growth can only indicate that interest rate cuts are imminent. After the meeting, Trump again mentioned the legal risks of removing the Federal Reserve Chairman. This point is very thought-provoking, so regarding interest rate cuts, we will not discuss it again in the future. You only need to assume that there will be about two interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, and the funds brought by the interest rate cuts will definitely flow into the crypto space. In conjunction with the listing of ETFs and the passage of the stablecoin bill, if you were capital, how would you choose? All measures revolve around the crypto space, and what you need to do now is to accumulate and wait.

Lao Cui summarizes: Returning to the reality of the problem, in terms of trends, Lao Cui no longer wants to talk about it. I can only clarify that there will still be new highs this year. As for the short-term trend, many friends hope that Lao Cui will predict new lows, possibly because they have short positions. In fact, what everyone expects is not Lao Cui's job. Whether in a bull market or bear market, new highs and new lows are unpredictable. The recent period has also been in a prolonged decline, which can only indicate that there are issues with the capital connection in the crypto space. Lao Cui is not good at perfect predictions and can directly assure you that no one in the crypto space can predict the exact points for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Lao Cui is the same. You should view Lao Cui's articles primarily from a trend perspective. From the perspective of short-term reserve funds, June and even July will have insufficient growth momentum, and the visible large capital has basically been exhausted. It just depends on when the gray market will enter. A large amount of gray market capital will only intervene with the issuance of stablecoins; at this stage, it is impossible to see massive capital. Although Trump has always been a buyer, this can only indicate that there will be a phase of growth in the bull market this year, and it is impossible to intuitively predict the points. The depth of Bitcoin's correction will not break the previous new lows, including Ethereum, so regarding this depth of correction, Lao Cui's view has always been to ambush in the spot market, and as long as there is a new low, you can enter about ten percent of your position. For contract users, even if you short, you can only focus on daily profits and should not hold positions overnight. June and July will definitely welcome a wave of deep declines, which Lao Cui has previously provided to everyone, with expectations around 10,000 to 20,000 points, and it won't be too deep. This correction is also very likely to be the last one before the bull market arrives. If the short position encounters problems, it may affect the overall income for this year, so think twice before acting! Recently, Lao Cui will also lay out positions regarding Bitcoin, and those interested can privately message Lao Cui to discuss. Again, I emphasize that Lao Cui does not do group chats. If you are a group user, do not look for Lao Cui!

Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, you can contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The master considers the overall situation, strategizes for the big picture, and does not focus on individual pieces or territories, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, and often finds themselves trapped.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!

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