I have always felt that the issue of altcoin seasons is related to overall liquidity. It's not that the market doesn't need an altcoin season, but rather that the current liquidity does not support the outbreak of an altcoin season, especially during periods of monetary tightening. However, I believe that an altcoin season will still emerge during periods of monetary easing.

The U.S. stock market is a good example. Compared to the U.S. stock market, the cryptocurrency market has a much shorter history, so short that this is the first time in history that the $BTC halving cycle coincides with the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening, leading to insufficient liquidity and causing many individuals' previous experiences to be inapplicable now.

Looking at the U.S. stock market, despite the Nasdaq and S&P frequently breaking new highs, small-cap stocks are still in a dire situation. Take Nike, which I have been watching closely; even McDonald's stock price trend is not very good, and the manufacturing and retail sectors are even worse.

However, the effects of the cycle are definitely still present. This cycle is driven by monetary policy. During periods of easing, liquidity is better, risk appetite for investments increases, and there is a greater willingness to invest in high-growth, high-risk assets. During periods of tightening, more investments are directed towards defensive assets.

Therefore, I believe that an altcoin season will definitely occur, although it may be in the 2028 cycle.

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