Judging Investor Sentiment Through Major Stablecoin Data

I just looked at the market capitalization of major stablecoins to see if recent events and yesterday's "Chuanma Battle" would have any impact on the market. From the data of USDT, there seems to be no effect; instead, the market capitalization is still on the rise. This is not surprising, as USDT is primarily used by partners in Asia, and its application in the cryptocurrency trading field is decreasing.

Next is USDC, which has seen slight fluctuations recently, but there has not been a large-scale decrease. In fact, since the end of April, the market capitalization of USDC has not continued to increase, reflecting that the enthusiasm of European and American investors for cryptocurrencies may have peaked and is now slowly cooling down. The feedback from trading volume data is similar; recent investor buying and selling sentiment is at a near one-year low (excluding yesterday).

Of course, the market capitalization of stablecoins does not equate to purchasing power, which is inevitable. Therefore, we also need to look at the data on major stablecoins being transferred to exchanges to see more practical user sentiment.

From the data, it is clear that both USDT and USDC have seen lower amounts of funds transferred to exchanges in the past two weeks compared to the past. The inflow of USDT last week was almost at its lowest level in the past year, while USDC has seen a decline in fund transfer amounts for two consecutive weeks, indicating that investors are indeed in a buying lull.

Some may argue that this portion of funds being transferred to exchanges is for financial returns, so the existing funds in exchanges remain a key focus.

The existing funds of USDT have been declining since the end of last year. One explanation is that some funds have left the exchanges, while another observation is that after Bitcoin's price peaked twice at the end of 2024, Asian investors began to reduce their investments. Even when Bitcoin breaks historical highs again in May 2025, Asian investors are still decreasing their funds in exchanges.

The existing funds of USDC in exchanges highly correlate with Bitcoin's price trends. When prices rise, the fund volume increases, and when prices fall, the fund volume decreases. This also indicates that European and American investors are more sensitive to price changes and are adept at chasing highs and cutting losses.

Overall, the sentiment of investors is not very positive. Although the overall market capitalization of stablecoins is still at a high point, the purchasing power converted from it has not yet shown FOMO sentiment. Asian investors are gradually reducing their investment willingness, while European and American investors seem to prefer right-side trading.

In the last two weeks, Bitcoin's overall trading volume has also fallen to recent lows. Aside from events causing increased volatility, other events' purchasing power indicates that investors are fatigued with the current trend, and it is very likely that after the price stabilizes in the near future, it will enter a "garbage time."

PS: From the existing data of exchanges, I noticed another key data point. As of 8 AM today, the total existing volume of major stablecoins across all exchanges is 36.57 billion USDT and 6.28 billion USDC. Among them, #Binance has a USDT volume of 22.26 billion USD, while USDC's volume is 3.89 billion USD, accounting for 60.87% and 61.94% of the total volume, respectively.

The second place is #OKX, with a total USDT volume of 6.69 billion USD and a total USDC volume of 619 million USD.

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