Every person who cares about American politics and analyzes it will predict that Trump and Musk will eventually break up and publicly tear each other apart.
Every person who cares about American politics and analyzes it will predict that Trump and Musk will eventually break up and publicly tear each other apart. Therefore, the rift between Trump and Musk is a highly predictable event that has been widely anticipated. However, this does not prevent their social media brawls from becoming global sensational news and a topic of conversation over meals.
Background of the Rift Between Musk and Trump
Musk was a Republican in his early years. During Trump's first term, he had some unpleasant experiences with Trump (after Trump withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement, Musk left Trump's business advisory council). The two were not close; the fundamental reason for their proximity was Musk's complete loss of faith in the Democratic Party. After Trump was first assassinated in July 2024, Musk publicly joined Trump's camp, donating $300 million to support Trump on the X platform and rallying a large number of tech right-wingers to join the Trump/MAGA camp. For a time, people viewed Silicon Valley's end of its political "deal" with the Democratic Party and the re-alignment of MAGA politics as a significant historical event of this century. In the tech circle, Musk helped transform Trump from a "political taboo" into a trend that could be proudly pursued. This was followed by the marriage of the Trump administration with emerging fields like artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency.
However, the political convergence between Musk and Trump has always been a political expediency—what is known as "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." MAGA provided the votes, while Musk and the tech right provided funding and media support, collaborating to push Trump into the White House and countless MAGA politicians into Congress. But the foundation of this political alliance has never been solid, as Trump's base, MAGA, is primarily composed of low- and middle-income white Americans. They advocate populist economic policies and have always been extremely hostile to large corporations and big capital—whether it be Silicon Valley giants, Wall Street tycoons, Hollywood, or American companies that crazily outsource overseas. The MAGA base believes that large corporations and big capital only consider their own business interests, never prioritizing "America first," and certainly not centering on the American people. Therefore, Musk and the tech right have always been viewed as opportunists who joined the MAGA revolution at the last minute, and the MAGA camp has been wary of them. Additionally, Musk's support for tech immigration has greatly dissatisfied the MAGA base, leading them to believe that Musk has revealed his true colors, and the separation between the tech right and MAGA may just be a matter of time.
From the beginning of Musk's involvement in Trump's camp, he set a political agenda for himself: to improve government efficiency, cut government spending, reduce the government deficit, and avoid American bankruptcy. This can be referenced in a previous article I wrote titled "Why Musk Fully Supports Trump—Based on an Interview Interpretation." In this interview, Musk expressed his thoughts and proposed the establishment of a "Government Efficiency Committee" to help Trump once he took office.
Improving government efficiency, cutting government spending, reducing the government deficit, and avoiding American bankruptcy—this is the most important political agreement between Musk and Trump.
After Trump took office, Musk led the so-called "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE), ambitiously aiming to cut $2 trillion in spending. After several months, however, it ended up in disarray, offending countless Trump aides and facing fierce criticism from the government system and media, ultimately only "saving" over $100 billion (and even that figure is questionable). In fact, DOGE became a tool for the Trump administration to control the federal government system ("deep state"), with Musk becoming a "tool" and political "cannon fodder." Ultimately, this project ended in failure. Musk, having invested so much, was vilified politically, which further impacted his business empire.
Since joining the Trump administration, Musk has been closely observing Trump. In the various experiences over the past few months, he has been secretly deducting points from Trump. From misguided policies (tariff wars) to all the nepotistic capitalist behaviors of Trump and his family, which Musk despises, he has been keeping a low profile, silently deducting points from Trump while leaving room for maneuver, all in pursuit of his goals, refraining from public criticism and only expressing opinions indirectly.
Until the introduction of Trump's "One Big, Beautiful Bill," which became the last straw that broke their relationship. This "One Big, Beautiful Bill" involves tax cuts and spending, expected to add $2.4 trillion to the U.S. budget deficit over the next decade. This bill can be seen as an act of economic suicide. The bond market has reacted fiercely. All of Musk's efforts with DOGE have become a joke. He publicly criticized it, calling the bill "an appalling atrocity" that would lead to American bankruptcy.
Trump's response crossed Musk's bottom line: Trump claimed that Musk opposed the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" because electric vehicle subsidies were canceled. The truth is that Musk never mentioned electric vehicle subsidies to Trump from day one; he believed that subsidies were not market-driven and that Tesla could not survive on subsidies, and that helping to reduce government budgets was beneficial for the country in the long run—he was willing to give up commercial interests for this. Therefore, Musk's opposition was primarily driven by idealistic concerns, not personal gain. His political involvement was detrimental to his economic interests; on the contrary, Trump's various political actions and policies have proven that he is the one truly driven by personal gain, treating politics as a money-making machine. The saying "a gentleman can be killed but not humiliated" applies here; Musk felt that Trump's remarks were a great diminishment, belittlement, and humiliation of him, which further enraged him. He thought to himself that he had invested so much money in Trump and paid such a high personal and commercial price, yet received no basic gratitude or respect in return.
Thus, for Musk, the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" touched on fundamental principles and ideologies, concerning the "survival" of America's future and involving the original intention and vision behind his joining Trump's camp. After silently deducting points from Trump over the past few months, Musk finally brought Trump down to zero points, even negative points, making their political separation inevitable. At this point, their public insults had already "hurt feelings" and undermined their foundation. Given their strong personalities, it would be very difficult to achieve reconciliation at this stage—even if they later made concessions and adopted a ceasefire posture (even embracing in the Oval Office)—nothing would be sufficient to resolve the existing conflicts and resentments.
In this incident, Musk was actually the first to jump out and attack, while Trump remained defensive, showing a restrained attitude. After all, he knows Musk's status as a major donor and social media platform owner, and understands Musk's long-term influence on American politics. He does not rely on Musk; his political aides, allies, successors, and family all depend on Musk or should not offend him. Therefore, regarding all previous disputes, including Musk's attacks on Trump's aides, Trump has shown a willingness to compromise, always trying to be accommodating. Musk initially also held back, stopping short of attacking Trump himself. But now, that boundary has been crossed. Musk has begun to attack Trump directly. Deep down, he is not afraid of Trump at all.
Many American observers who understand the personalities of Trump and Musk have accurately predicted that if Trump and Musk were to break apart, it would likely happen in the most intense manner, with escalating conflicts that would be difficult to manage, and the process would be highly dramatic and "entertaining," potentially driving changes in the entire American political landscape. We shall see.
Here are some analyses of the next steps in the evolution.
Next Steps
1. Musk: He has already launched a survey on X, asking whether he can form a "new party representing 80% of Americans." Over 80% of respondents clicked "support." Clearly, Musk is dissatisfied with both the Republican and Democratic parties and hopes to seek or even organize a new political force—this could involve politicians from both parties operating within the existing two platforms or forming a new party. Considering the American public's disappointment with establishment politics and dissatisfaction with Trump's corruption, forming a new party is not out of the question. In the UK and Germany, we have seen new parties independent of traditional establishments emerge and gain a foothold in national politics.
2. Musk's Business Empire. This mainly involves two aspects: one is the commercial level, and the other is the political level.
First, on the political level, if Musk becomes the leader opposing Trump after "changing sides," he may be able to win back the original liberal consumer base. However, considering his past support for Trump, he carries a "stain," so he needs to "make amends." First, he must prove that he is a vision and value-driven person who "misjudged the character" and "boarded the wrong ship." Next, he needs to repent, reform, and start anew. Second, he must let his actions speak, launching unprecedented attacks against Trump, funding anti-Trump political movements, exposing more scandals as an "insider," further dismantling Trump's persona, and undermining Trump's political foundation. Third, he needs to eliminate some ideologically extreme, controversial, redundant, and unnecessary elements, such as white supremacy (Nazi gestures). If he can achieve these, he may be able to win back his original consumer base and even reignite American enthusiasm for electric vehicles (which has currently dropped to a low point). Additionally, in Europe, he should downplay political involvement and refrain from supporting populist right-wing parties, aiming to regain the trust of Europeans. In short, Musk needs to politically prove himself anew and realign politically with his traditional consumer base (mostly left-leaning). However, for the next three years, the U.S. will still be under Trump's rule, and directly confronting the Trump administration will certainly be detrimental to Musk's business empire—he will be unable to secure government contracts and should not expect to see any favorable regulatory policies.
The commercial level issues are even more complex. As an individual, Musk's time and energy are limited; if he fully immerses himself in the political struggle with Trump, he will have no time to manage his business empire. What he should be doing now is actually distancing himself from politics, returning to business, and focusing on operations. Yesterday, Tesla's stock price fell by 14%, and investors are not only worried about the company facing harsher, more hostile regulations but also concerned about whether Musk can focus on business. If Musk cannot concentrate on business, then even if he turns the political tide, Tesla will not recover—because Tesla's products and technology have already fallen behind.
Trump: Trump views politics as a reality show (refer to the author's article "The Essence of Television 'Reality Shows' and Trump's Politics," where conflict and reversal are the essence of reality shows. Therefore, he is not afraid of conflict itself; rather, he may see opportunities in conflict. Trump has always been combative and cannot tolerate others speaking against him, especially detesting betrayal. However, he has always been lenient towards Musk because he knows Musk's business acumen, broad influence, political value as a Republican donor and media supporter, and the fact that Musk is decades younger than him. He understands that the future belongs to Musk—his successors and Republican allies will need Musk's favor in the long run. Thus, even Trump must give Musk some leeway. Moreover, on a personal level, he likes Musk, considering him a childlike genius ("90% genius, 10% child"), which allows him to be quite accommodating towards Musk. If Musk stops attacking Trump and is willing to give him an out, reacknowledge Trump's correctness and greatness, and express loyalty to Trump, then Trump might still forgive Musk—he has forgiven many who have attacked him in the past (including JD Vance and Tucker Carlson)—as long as they are willing to bow to Trump and express loyalty, they can still "pass"—at least on the surface. However, to be reaccepted by Trump, greater efforts are required: they must deeply reflect on their past betrayals and publicly kiss Trump's royal boots. This is difficult for Musk. It is foreseeable that Musk will maintain and intensify his attacks on Trump (posting daily on X), while Trump will be on the defensive. It is currently hard to judge how forcefully Trump will retaliate; he has many ways to make Musk uncomfortable, such as revoking Musk's government contracts, investigating Musk's drug abuse issues, or making issues of Musk's connections in China. However, it is more likely that Trump will remain in a defensive position, letting those around him take action. Regardless, the prospects for reconciliation between the two have become very bleak.
4. Republican Politicians: Now, everyone is in pain, and they are immediately forced to choose sides between Trump and Musk (attempting to remain silent is also a form of "choosing sides," as "not choosing sides" equals "choosing sides"). Now, every Republican must consider their positioning in the "post-Trump" era, which concerns their own future. Trump represents the "present" (the next three and a half years), while Musk represents the "future" (the next several decades). Many people's private policy views and values are actually closer to Musk's, but due to Trump's strong influence, they cannot express their opinions. However, as long as Musk takes the lead and garners public support, politicians will secretly approach Musk. This will initiate a new round of political realignment—though it may not appear in the public eye, the seeds have already been sown.
5. The MAGA Base: The MAGA base consists of low- and middle-income white Americans. From the beginning, MAGA has been skeptical of Musk. Ordinary people find it hard to relate to this Silicon Valley billionaire. Their interests are more aligned with populist issues against big corporations and big capital. They suspect Musk is an opportunist who joined the MAGA revolution at the last minute. They are skeptical of Musk's business empire and technological vision (from electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, humanoid robots to colonizing Mars). They are wary of Musk's globalist agenda (such as his connections with China). They lack an intuitive sense of Musk's advocacy for fiscal conservatism. Musk has never been a good public communicator. At this moment, the vast MAGA camp is likely in a wait-and-see state. Since they have no inherent goodwill towards Musk and have always been suspicious of big capital, they easily believe Trump's claim that Musk is opposing him due to business interests—specifically, the cancellation of electric vehicle subsidies. Ultimately, it will depend on the voices of MAGA opinion leaders; at this time, everyone is likely making responsible calculations.
1) MAGA spiritual leader Stephen Bannon has always been vocally anti-Musk, even though he shares similar views with Musk on specific issues (such as fiscal conservatism). He will certainly ramp up his opposition to Musk, aiming to prove to the world that Musk has always been a threat to the MAGA movement.
2) Tucker Carlson: This person is actually quite independent, with views close to the MAGA base (true MAGA), and he retains his opinions on major issues, including subtle criticisms of Trump. In the future, he is likely to align with JD Vance. His subsequent statements on this matter will be a true barometer of opinion.
3) Joe Rogan: Strictly speaking, he cannot be considered part of the MAGA base, but he has a significant influence on the straight male demographic. He is also relatively independent; if Musk comes forward to expose Trump's political corruption, Joe Rogan is likely to support Musk.
4) Laura Loomer, a very influential MAGA influencer, is a mindless supporter of Trump. She firmly supports Israel and is anti-Islam, while Musk does not actually support Israel (and currently, X is filled with anti-Israel and anti-Semitic rhetoric). For this reason alone, she cannot support Musk. She may become a prominent anti-Musk voice.
However, the most important figure among them is JD Vance, as he is the most likely successor to Trump.
6. JD Vance: JD Vance has always been regarded as the most solid and resilient link between MAGA and the tech right. He has found a comfortable middle ground, able to communicate with Trump, establish a psychological connection with the MAGA base, lead the charge in pushing forward cutting-edge technologies like artificial intelligence, and spearhead efforts to regulate large platform companies (such as breaking up Meta and Google), while also sharply criticizing elite universities in the U.S. He occupies a very unique position. What happens next is crucial. It can be predicted that he will publicly support Trump and participate in mediating the conflict between Trump and Musk (both externally, downplaying their conflict, and internally, attempting to mediate), while finding a position for himself in the process. Among all politicians, he is the one who needs to consider his future the most, as he is already the vice president and viewed as a successor; he must manage his relationships with Trump, the MAGA base, and major donor Musk. This presents him with an unprecedented political challenge. JD Vance's attitude can also be seen as a barometer of opinion.
7. The Democratic Party: They have been waiting for this moment for a long, long time. Due to the previous conflicts between Trump and Musk, their relationship had been maintained, so the media had somewhat lowered expectations for a rift between them, even believing that Musk could maintain a personal relationship with Trump even if he faded from Washington due to political disagreements. Therefore, this public rift between Musk and Trump is somewhat beyond expectations. The next step is that some of them will wonder if they can somehow pull Musk in. However, this requires Democratic politicians to abandon their cultural leftist agenda—such as wokeness, DEI, etc.—and to strengthen law enforcement, combat crime, oppose illegal immigration, and tolerate Musk's white-centric views, which is somewhat challenging. However, many Democrats see an opportunity and are watching to see who can take the first step.
8. The Competition in Social Media: Musk has X. Trump has been nurturing his own Truth Social. He posts major information on Truth Social and only occasionally posts on X, just to make a point. In the future, he may not post on X much at all. But in reality, not many people use Truth Social. Everyone knows that it is just a platform for Trump to express himself. Once he leaves, the platform will end. The future of social media in the political realm still lies with X. Musk completely dominates X. If he slightly adjusts the algorithm to limit Trump's reach or makes adjustments to Grok, it will have a huge impact on the public opinion ecosystem.
9. The Tech Right: The tech right's entry into Trump's camp is greatly related to Musk's influence (see "Four Types of People in America's 'Tech Right'"), and Musk is a thought leader within the tech right. Moving forward, Musk will undoubtedly spare no effort in attacking Trump within his circle. The tech right may not abandon the Republican Party, but they might withdraw their support for Trump personally and turn to other candidates. Additionally, Silicon Valley tycoons (like Zuckerberg, Bezos, Cook, etc.) who only approached Trump after his election had a very short honeymoon period with the Trump administration, but due to trade wars and the Trump administration's antitrust measures against large tech companies, their relationship with Trump has become tense. MAGA opinion leaders like Stephen Bannon will likely escalate their attacks on large tech companies, emphasizing the populist nature of MAGA. It can be judged that Musk's departure will significantly weaken the political marriage between Silicon Valley and Trump and MAGA.
10. China: Musk has deep business ties with China and has expressed recognition of China in various public forums (including its system, governance model, infrastructure, tech companies, and technology). It can be predicted that the Trump camp will intensify its attacks on Musk's connections with China, and these connections will become a "liability" for Musk in American politics. This also indicates that, in today's American politics, the alliance between capital and politics is weak and volatile—betting on Musk to influence the Trump administration will lead to a completely passive situation.
The above is a preliminary analysis of the rift between Musk and Trump. This is a vivid case that truly reflects the interaction between American capital and politics.
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