Solana has big news again.

The U.S. SEC has recently begun requiring the issuers of Solana spot ETFs to update their S-1 prospectuses. This "updating of the prospectus" essentially tells the market: the review process is accelerating!

You might remember that the ETH spot ETF was officially announced to be approved less than two weeks after the S-1 update. So many people have started comparing Solana with ETH to see if this "second-tier altcoin" has a chance to replicate that major upward trend. Let's make a simple comparison:

Progress Stage

Ethereum (ETH) ETF

Solana (SOL) ETF

19b-4 Approval

SEC approved (May 2024)

Submitted (June-December 2024), review deadline October 16, 2025

S-1 Prospectus Submission

Multiple institutions have submitted and updated, launching in July 2024

Multiple institutions have submitted, SEC requested S-1 update in June 2025

Approval Expectations

Expected to launch in July 2024 (Staking ETF may launch in June 2025)

Earliest mid-July 2025, conservatively estimated for October

Potential Beneficial Assets

ETH main coin, L2 ecosystem

SOL main coin, Meme coin ecosystem

Do you see it? Although Solana has not yet reached the "official approval" position like ETH in the process, it has now entered the "ETF public opinion catalyst + market speculation" stage. Moreover, because the trading volume and market cap of the SOL main coin are not as high as ETH, its marginal driving force may actually be stronger.

But here’s the problem: the current on-chain heat of Solana is not at all the "main coin's home ground."

Structural Misalignment: Main Coin Silence, Meme Coin Surge

Looking at the trending list on the Solana chain, it's almost all Meme coins dominating: WIF, BOME, POPCAT, JEFF… Various animal avatars and meme culture, with people shouting about 10x, 30x, or even 100x wealth every day. Meanwhile, the SOL main coin, as the "main character" of the Solana ecosystem, has become the least talked about and the quietest.

This creates a very interesting structural contradiction:

• On one side, on-chain retail investors are speculating on Memes, chasing highs and cutting losses, with short-term emotions running high;
• On the other side, the ETF is imminent, indicating that traditional institutions are paying attention to the SOL main coin and preparing for long-term allocation.

Two streams of capital—one hot, one cold; one fast, one slow—are currently "misaligned" within the Solana ecosystem. So the question arises:

• Will SOL, like ETH, experience a wave of main coin catch-up driven by the ETF catalyst?
• Or will it continue to be marginalized by the Meme craze, clearly the main character but never getting its moment in the spotlight?

So you may have realized—this wave of Solana's market is far more than just a story that can be summed up with the word "ETF." The heat of Memes, the technical aspects of the main coin, on-chain activity, and off-chain capital layouts… these factors are weaving together a multi-threaded trading environment where emotions and fundamentals intertwine. As traders, the key is never to "pick a side," but to identify the differences in rhythm and expectations, and to formulate smarter trading plans accordingly.

SOL Main Coin: Trend Logic + ETF Expectations, Key Focus on Breakthrough and Confirmation

Compared to the highly volatile Meme coins, the trend of the SOL main coin is more trend-driven. Especially in the context of strong ETF expectations, technical analysis tends to focus more on structural breakthroughs + pullback confirmations as mid-term signals.

Currently, the SOL price has risen above the EMA20 and EMA30 moving averages, showing a clear bullish arrangement, accompanied by moderate volume expansion and RSI breaking through the overbought threshold, forming positive resonance signals technically. The short-term has broken through the consolidation platform around $160, and the next test will be the key resistance zone of the previous high at $185-$187. If the market can form an effective breakout with increased volume in this range and stabilize above $180, the mid-term upward wave structure is expected to be established.
At the same time, we can pay attention to the following key technical signals:

Indicator/Pattern

Meaning

Volume breakout of the $160-$170 platform

Bullish momentum release signal; if sustained volume increases, it can further challenge previous highs

EMA20/30 golden cross and bullish divergence

Confirms the trend direction is upward, supporting mid-term holding strategy

RSI strongly breaks through 70 (currently overbought)

Emotions are extremely high, but no divergence has appeared, can continue to maintain a strong structure observation

Continuous volume expansion + no stagnation structure

Healthy capital inflow rhythm, indicating the main coin has not been diluted in attention by the Meme market

Traders can focus on whether a "volume breakout bullish candle + high-level consolidation without breaking EMA20" structure is formed. If not, a stagnation + long upper shadow bearish candle may appear, and SOL is still expected to leverage the ETF catalyst to develop a mid-term trend.

Meme Coins: Emotional Game + High Volatility, More Focus on Volume and Short-Term Structure

The trading logic of Meme coins is completely different from that of the main coin; it resembles a short-term game driven by emotions and speculation, with technical analysis more used to assist in judging popularity and positioning. For coins like WIF and BOME, a single candlestick can see dozens of points in price increase, usually driven by emotional catalysts (trending topics, KOL endorsements, trading platform traffic).

For example, WIF's price surged from about $0.95 to $1.0780 between June 10 and June 11, an increase of over 13%, clearly driven by a surge in trading volume (the volume bar on June 10 significantly expanded). This means that technical analysis should focus more on "emotional turning points" and "volume-price explosions."

For these types of coins, commonly used short-term indicators include:

Indicator/Pattern

Usage

Volume explosion + long bullish candle

Typical initiation signal, igniting emotions

RSI (extreme overbought/oversold)

Judging whether it has entered a short-term top or bottom reversal area

Bollinger Bands convergence + volume breakout

Initiation node, often accompanied by concentrated emotional explosions

MACD top divergence/bottom divergence

Judging whether there is short-term adjustment risk after excessive gains

Tick-by-tick order analysis (advanced)

Judging whether there are wash trading or dumping behaviors

Traders can focus on whether there is a "sideways contraction + sudden volume surge" structure, and whether it overlaps with external catalysts like trending topics or KOL endorsements.

Main Coin vs Meme Coin: Technical Analysis Differences Comparison

Project

SOL Main Coin

Meme Coin

Core Driving Logic

Medium to long-term trends, institutional games, ETF expectations

Short-term emotional flow, social media heat, speculative behavior

Main Technical Signals

Breakthrough resistance levels, trend continuation, bullish moving average arrangement

Volume explosion, Bollinger Band breakout, emotional turning points

Indicator Preferences

EMA moving average system, MACD trend, OBV, CMF

RSI extremes, Bollinger Bands, volume candlesticks, candlestick structure combinations

Trading Rhythm

Tends to be mid-term, relatively mild rhythm

Tends to be short-term, quick initiation, quick retreat

Risk Management Focus

Setting defensive zones (e.g., previous platform levels)

Quick in and out + profit-taking and stop-loss discipline

Meme Frenzy vs ETF Layout: Hedge or Resonance?

The lively scene on the Solana chain actually hides two worlds intertwining:

• One is the Meme coin frenzy composed of on-chain retail investors, often FOMOing, going all in, and experiencing wild price swings;
• The other is off-chain institutions building asset allocation pools for the SOL main coin through ETFs and other channels.

In the short term, these two worlds seem to be in a hedging relationship—retail investors create emotional fluctuations on-chain, while institutions are waiting for certain opportunities to gradually enter. However, in the long term, they may not be unable to form a resonance. The traffic of Meme coins is precisely a reflection of the heat of the Solana ecosystem; and an active ecosystem can provide real support for the value of the main coin.

For us traders, what’s more important is not "which side to choose," but how to step on the rhythm difference correctly:

• When the emotional cycle erupts, participate in Meme coins to seize swing opportunities;
• As the ETF window approaches, stealthily position in SOL main coins to capture the upward wave.

As long as it is handled properly, Meme and the main coin do not necessarily have to be opposing forces; they can completely become the dual engines in your position allocation.

So, when facing this "main coin vs Meme coin" dual market, the technical perspective you choose actually determines which timeline you are on. But this is not a binary confrontation; rather, it is a multi-dimensional game about rhythm and allocation. A truly mature trader does not just chase trends but can identify the operational tracks of different logics and grasp the misaligned flow of capital. The ETF is an opportunity, the Meme is a tool, and advancing on both lines may allow you to carve out your own winning curve in this new narrative of Solana.

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