If you have a dream, you must persist in defending it. Many people tell you it's impossible simply because they themselves cannot achieve it. Let's accept both the good and the bad, and then silently continue living. Showing off in front of others is a way to learn to forget; feeling melancholy behind closed doors is because we can't learn to disguise ourselves. In fact, we are all just lonely children, yearning for someone to care, longing for someone to love, and hoping that the people around us will never say goodbye.
Yesterday's market trend was quite perfect, running exactly as we analyzed, basically maintaining a small range of fluctuations. It first fluctuated and retraced to around 108500, then rebounded to around 110300. As of now, it has once again fluctuated and retreated to around 109600. Looking back at our analysis and operations from yesterday, it completely aligns with our judgment. We operated in a small range, buying long at 108500 and shorting on the rebound above 110000. As we said, both long and short positions can be operated, and both have profits. Currently, we are just holding onto our short positions.
Returning to today's market, since I woke up this morning, I spent some time reviewing various data and analyzing the market. Analyzing a market that is currently in high-level fluctuations is indeed a bit complex. Why do I say there are signs of divergence in direction today? First, from the perspective of market liquidity, after the high-level fluctuations, we are currently in a market close to a new high. The previous short liquidity was mainly around 115000, and during this fluctuation, short liquidity has increased again. The question now is whether the market will further liquidate this short liquidity above. We also analyzed yesterday that after maintaining the fluctuations, we need to see if the news can cooperate. Currently, there are two news items worth paying attention to: tonight's CPI data and the China-US negotiations. If the news is favorable, there is no need to say much; the market will definitely liquidate the dense short liquidity above, after all, it is not too far away. If the news is unfavorable, then a retracement may occur, possibly testing the lower position of the large area at 105000.
On the technical side, from the daily chart, the candlestick structure shows a clear bullish arrangement after a bottoming out. All moving averages are converging and running upwards. At the same time, on the technical indicators, MACD is showing a continuous rebound in the market, with short volume shrinking and about to enter the bullish zone. However, it is important to note that both RSI and KDJ are at high levels, and the indicators are diverging, showing signs of overbought conditions. Generally, after an overbought RSI, a correction will occur. Simply put, even if the market continues to rebound from its current position and even reaches new highs, it may not last long.
On the four-hour level, after once again pushing above 110000, it seems to be running out of steam. After reaching a secondary high point on the four-hour chart, it has retreated. Generally, in such cases, there will be an expected correction. On the technical indicators, the market has completed a full rebound in the MACD bullish zone, and now the two lines above the zero axis will form a death cross, entering the bearish zone. KDJ and RSI are starting to turn down from high levels, indicating that the four-hour chart is still showing a market looking for a correction. If it retraces, the previous high support and the MA120 moving average are converging around 106800, which may become a confirmation position for the retracement, so it is worth paying attention to.
In terms of operations, for now, we will hold onto our short positions above 110000. Yesterday's strategy is still valid. Today's key will be to watch the evening news. From the continuous decline of the spot premium index, it seems that a lot of off-market funds are slowly unloading, and we don't know if there is some insider information, possibly a negative CPI data? Preemptively unloading for risk avoidance?
Considering more market situations, we still need to develop a more complete operational strategy. For now, holding short positions is fine. If we want to go long, we should lower our entry points to around 107500-107000. If it goes lower, it will reach 105000. The final result will still depend on the evening.
Ethereum's trend seems to be a bit stronger. Yesterday's retracement did not reach our expected entry point of 2580. As mentioned yesterday, if Bitcoin breaks upwards, Ethereum will definitely go above 3000. If Bitcoin breaks through, I personally anticipate a significant correction, and at that time, Ethereum is likely to play the role of a "doomsday chariot." Today's operation should be a short position above 2800, but remember, it must be a short position. If you want to go long, then aim for 2600.
[The above analysis and strategy are for reference only. Please bear the risk yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes in real-time may lead to delayed information. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.]
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