I. Fundamental Changes in the Market

(1) Escalation of Geopolitical Conflicts, Crypto Assets Hit Hard

At 6 AM this morning, explosions were reported in Tehran, the capital of Iran, marking a significant escalation in the conflict with Israel. This sudden event instantly impacted global financial markets, with high-risk assets being the most affected. Funds quickly flocked to traditional safe havens, causing gold prices to surge to $1950 per ounce, the short end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve to decline, and the yen to briefly break the 138 mark against the dollar. The cryptocurrency market was not spared either, with mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing sharp short-term declines; Bitcoin dropped nearly $500 within half an hour. The "digital gold" safe-haven attribute of crypto assets is once again widely questioned under this wave of impact. The spillover effects of geopolitical conflicts are profoundly affecting the short-term trends of cryptocurrencies, with uncertainty significantly increasing.

(2) Goldman Sachs Forecast: Bank of Japan Stays Put

Goldman Sachs released its latest macroeconomic report, predicting the direction of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. It believes that in the foreseeable short term, the Bank of Japan will maintain its current monetary policy stance and continue to hold steady, with the next interest rate hike likely postponed until next year. As the world's third-largest economy, Japan's monetary policy has a significant impact on global financial market liquidity. In the current context of a diverging global economic recovery and frequent geopolitical risks, the Bank of Japan's cautious attitude suggests that the global liquidity landscape will not see significant changes from Japan in the short term, making it difficult for the cryptocurrency market to gain additional liquidity support from adjustments in Japanese monetary policy, which will continue to navigate within the existing macro environment.

(3) SEC Delays Decision on Ethereum ETF

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced a delay in its decision regarding the staking options for the Franklin spot Ethereum ETF. This news instantly stirred the Ethereum and related ETF markets. In the short term, market uncertainty has significantly increased, causing Ethereum's price to drop by 2%, and the subscription and redemption volumes of related ETF products also fluctuated. Institutional investors, faced with the SEC's hesitant stance, have chosen to wait and see, leading to a significant decline in risk appetite. However, from a long-term perspective, if the SEC ultimately approves the staking options, the Ethereum ecosystem will welcome a new development opportunity. New passive income channels will attract a large influx of institutional funds, injecting long-term stable liquidity into the market, driving Ethereum's price upward, and reshaping the market landscape.

II. Technical Analysis of Market Trends

(1) BTC: Intense Battle Between Bulls and Bears, Focus on Key Ranges

Yesterday's analysis clearly pointed out that the current instability of geopolitical conflicts is the core variable for the market, significantly diminishing the sustainability of the trend, with minimal profit effects for spot investments. The daily chart of Bitcoin showed that the price briefly rose to around $109,000, but the bulls failed to hold effectively, subsequently facing a fierce counterattack from bears. This morning, influenced by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the price rapidly fell like a waterfall, dropping over three thousand points within just a few hours, with the daily line ultimately closing with a long upper shadow. However, it is worth noting that the daily closing price remains above the moving average system, and it has recorded three consecutive days of positive closes, with the K-line overall showing an upward turning trend, indicating that the bullish strength has not completely exhausted, and there is still a possibility of another attempt to challenge the $109,000 - $110,000 resistance range during the day.

From the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin began a steady rise yesterday morning, maintaining an upward trend for 24 hours. However, a large bearish candle this morning broke the upward momentum, but it was quickly followed by a sharp rebound, indicating that the overall small-scale upward trend has not been completely destroyed. During the Asian trading session, the price is expected to continue to rise slightly. In terms of daily operations, investors need to closely monitor the strong resistance at the $109,000 - $110,000 level above; if it cannot break through effectively, the price is likely to pull back. Below, focus on the support at the $106,000 - $105,000 level; if it breaks down, it may trigger a new round of declines.

(2) ETH: Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term Trend Unchanged

The daily chart of Ethereum shows a high-to-low trend, closing with a long upper shadow bearish candle. This K-line pattern clearly indicates that in the current market environment, the short-term bulls are facing strong resistance when attempting to break through the upper pressure level, and the market lacks sufficient confidence in the breakout. Without significant positive news such as the approval of staking ETFs, it will be challenging for Ethereum to break upward in the short term; sideways consolidation or another retest of support will likely become a high-probability event. However, from a long-term perspective, Ethereum's price trend remains well above the rising blue trend line, indicating that its long-term upward trend has not been materially damaged, and the current adjustment falls within a healthy correction range.

On the 4-hour chart, a large bearish candle this morning has almost completely reversed yesterday's gains. Although the price has rebounded somewhat, during yesterday's upward movement, the price consolidated for a long time in the $2630 - $2660 range, forming strong trapped positions that pose significant pressure on the current rebound. In terms of daily operations, investors can view the $2630 - $2660 level above as a key resistance level; if the price cannot effectively break through this range, the height of the rebound will be very limited. Below, focus on the support at the $2580 - $2550 level; if the price further declines in the short term, the $2500 area may become an important bottom support zone.

(3) Altcoins: Weak Market Under High Risk

Recent market performance clearly shows that during the market correction, the decline of Ethereum and altcoins has been significantly greater than that of Bitcoin. This is mainly due to the geopolitical conflicts intensifying market risk aversion, leading to a ruthless abandonment of high-risk altcoins by market funds, making it difficult for them to gain attention. Currently, the rebound of altcoins not only lacks sustainability but also has very low profitability; even if investors seize brief rebound opportunities, the profits are hard to secure, while facing significant pullback risks. In this market environment, the best strategy is undoubtedly to remain on the sidelines and avoid blindly chasing prices (FOMO). Only by waiting for the geopolitical conflicts to gradually ease and market liquidity to significantly improve can the altcoin market hope to welcome real investment opportunities, allowing investors to better grasp the market rhythm.

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; proceed with caution. This is a personal opinion and not advice, for sharing purposes only.

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