Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Waking up, the so-called news that rewrites history did not happen. The recent FOMC meeting by the Federal Reserve was, to put it bluntly, just a set of old moves, a feint, saying they will maintain high interest rates. However, they still plan to cut rates twice in 2025, with the reduction shrinking from the originally market-expected 125-150 basis points to 100 basis points.

As I mentioned yesterday, the entire market already knew there would be no rate cuts, so the Federal Reserve's move didn't scare anyone, but it didn't provide any warmth either. Once the dot plot was released, it was clear that there was quite a bit of internal disagreement. On one hand, they say the economy is slowing, while on the other hand, they say employment is still okay.

In any case, they touch on everything but guarantee nothing. Old Powell's rhetoric is enough; he is indirectly pushing back against Trump: if you dare to raise tariffs recklessly, I won't rush to cut rates, and there's no way I'm going to bow down!

Returning to the market, Bitcoin's performance has been quite sensitive these past few days. With no significant movement in the U.S. stock market, it has preemptively realized the bad news. Now, it's oscillating around 105K, as narrow as a pair of pants, with a clear intention to flatten everyone's holding costs horizontally, preparing for real volatility later.

But let me tell you, once this oscillation ends, it's likely to head downwards. Why? It's simple; it has risen for 7 weeks, and now it's just taking a breather; the pullback is simply not enough.

100K has been treated as an iron bottom by countless bulls; do you think the main force doesn't want to stab down and force them into liquidation? Don't be foolish. Right now, it can't even stand above the middle track, and the structure is clearly bearish.

And the most intriguing part is whether the previously imagined 102K liquidation and V-reversal can still happen? Theoretically, there is indeed a possibility. Today is Thursday, a federal holiday in the U.S., and the stock market is closed, so market liquidity will definitely be low.

If something unexpected happens in the Middle East during this time, the market could explode into a liquidation flow. In simple terms, those looking to bottom out or take profits on short positions will have to see if Trump has the ability to stir things up.

But if nothing happens in the next couple of days, then after the oscillation, it will slowly rebound. The smaller time frames won't give you a V-reversal opportunity, and I personally believe that this shrinking oscillation will most likely lead to a pattern of increasing volatility.

Whether it drops first or rises first is not important; what matters is that once it moves, the direction will come. If it first dips down, it might actually pull up afterward; if it first makes a false breakout up to 106K, then be careful, as it could be a high sell-off, forming a distribution, and then directly turn into a bearish market.

By the way, recently someone asked me when the 90K shorts can be unwound? You're quite something; I can only say to be conservative, let's see if there are opportunities in July to August.

Now, the range above 100K will stay longer than you think, but from a broader structure, below 126K is basically considered a distribution zone, not for pushing the price up, but for pushing it down!

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 106000

First Resistance Level: 105300

Support Levels Reference:

Second Support Level: 104100

First Support Level: 103400

On the hourly level, Bitcoin's price has received support twice at 103.4K, forming a triple bottom structure. As long as it does not fall below 103.4K, the rebound logic remains valid. Future attention should be paid to breakthroughs or failures below this range before making trading decisions.

The first resistance at 105.3K is the upper edge of the current short-term range; if the price rebounds to this level, it will face the first round of pressure. However, it can also serve as the first target for taking profits on low long positions.

If the second resistance at 106.0K can stabilize, it indicates strong bullish momentum; if it rises without volume and then falls back, be wary of selling pressure above. Each time it pulls back to the second support at 104.1K, it has stabilized and built a bottom, so the rebound idea can still be maintained in the short term.

The first support at 103.4K is the deepest point of the triple bottom; if the price shows a lower shadow at this position, it indicates strong buying interest, and the rebound can continue to be watched. If it directly breaks down with a solid K-line, it is advisable to quickly adjust the strategy, either going short or remaining on the sidelines.

6.19 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in batches in the 103400-104100 range, Target: 105300-106000

Short Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making rash conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the top and bottom," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). For more real-time investment strategies, liquidation, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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