Key Points:
Bitcoin (BTC) has been trapped in the range of $102,000 to $112,000 since May, but its On-Balance Volume (OBV) has shown a continuous upward trend, suggesting there may be more room for growth in the future.
Market analyst Cas Abbé points out that the divergence between price and OBV indicates that "buying pressure" is increasing. He expects the rising OBV to help push Bitcoin's price to the range of $130,000 to $135,000 in the third quarter of 2025.
Source: Cas Abbé
The OBV indicator assesses whether buyers or sellers are in control by tracking volume. It increases when volume rises with price and decreases when volume falls with price. Therefore, an increasing OBV means that total buying volume exceeds selling volume.
In the case of Bitcoin, the OBV has consistently set higher highs since early May, even though the price has mostly consolidated during this period. From a technical perspective, this divergence suggests that demand is gradually accumulating beneath the surface.
Historical price trends show that when OBV rises to confirm potential buying pressure during price consolidation, Bitcoin often breaks out strongly.
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Between March and April 2025, Bitcoin's price consolidated between $76,000 and $84,000, during which the OBV began to form higher lows. This was followed by a 57% increase, with Bitcoin's price breaking above $110,000 in May.
If this fractal pattern plays out as expected, it could validate analyst Cas Abbé's view that Bitcoin's price may reach $130,000 to $135,000 in the third quarter of 2025.
Bitcoin appears to be forming a classic bull flag pattern, a continuation pattern that typically occurs after a strong rally followed by a period of consolidation.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin's price surged from around $93,670 to nearly $112,000 in May, forming the "flagpole." Since then, the price has been consolidating downward within a parallel channel, forming the "flag."
BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
This structure suggests that Bitcoin may be preparing for the next wave of upward movement. This would set Bitcoin's breakout target at around $130,000, closely aligning with Cas Abbé's prediction for the third quarter of 2025.
The bull flag target aligns with predictions from several market analysts, including Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz, who believes that due to strong institutional inflows and a weakening dollar, Bitcoin is expected to reach $130,000 to $150,000.
Other analysts, such as Stockmoney Lizards, expect Bitcoin's price to rise even higher, targeting $200,000 by the end of the year.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading action involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Related: Despite tensions in the Middle East, U.S. Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs continue to see inflows for 8 days
Original article: “Bitcoin Volume Metric Suggests $130K-$135K BTC Will Happen in the Summer”
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