Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Last night, the US stock market was closed, and Bitcoin remained stagnant. Recently, the events in Israel and Palestine have had no real impact on the US stock market, yet the crypto community is in a frenzy. This point alone confirms that Bitcoin has never exhibited the characteristics of a safe-haven asset under irresistible external factors.

Now it's June to August, and it’s the same old story every year: volatility + confusion + fake moves. During this phase, bulls need to be quick in and out, grabbing a profit of two or three points and then running.

Because the recent rhythm has changed, the bounce from 2 to 3 points and then back to 6 to 8 points has turned into a drop to 2 to 1 points and then a bounce to 5 to 6 points. In simple terms, the market is becoming increasingly tricky; if you don’t adapt, you’ll get caught off guard.

As for the bears, it doesn’t seem like they’re doing much better. Bitcoin is still hovering above 100K, and Ethereum hasn’t collapsed either. To put it bluntly, no one in the market wants to make a real move, and there’s no solid news from outside; everyone is just stalling.

But I have to share my perspective: at times like this, once the news takes a breather—whether it’s a de-escalation of conflict or the Federal Reserve making some vague statements about easing—there’s a high probability of a fake rebound, luring you in before stepping on you.

Why is it a fake rebound? Look at the spot price premium of Bitcoin; it’s clear that someone is propping it up, buying for a while but then stopping. Funds are drying up, and sentiment is waning. Yet, the futures market is becoming more optimistic day by day, which is quite strange.

The spot market is a real chip transaction, while the futures market is a leveraged bubble. This indicates that the next likely scenario is that the futures market will orchestrate a fake breakout, and then… you know what happens next.

Currently, the liquidity map shows that there’s a pile of short liquidity at 107K, and it’s starting to build up below 102K as well. Based on the market's behavior over the past few weeks, there’s a high probability that today will see some liquidation; if there’s no significant movement, that would be problematic.

As of now, I personally lean towards a bearish outlook, but to be honest, I don’t want to short because it’s too easy to get caught. Moreover, I’m quite worried about a sudden V-shaped reversal. So I’d rather wait for it to break below 102K, then see a long wick reversal before making a decision.

In conclusion, most retail investors above 100K don’t really know how to trade spot, and institutions are also reluctant to take over because they want cheap chips, not high-priced retail investors at six figures. Right now, it’s all just a performance—who are they performing for? For retail investors like you and me.

The outcome is simply to wash you out, and then the price will drop. Institutions will quietly accumulate, and then a new round of real upward movement will begin, while retail investors chase after it, only to have their dreams of a bull market shattered again…!

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 105800

First Resistance Level: 105100

Support Levels Reference:

Second Support Level: 104100

First Support Level: 103400

Bitcoin is currently forming a triangular convergence pattern after a price drop. Until a clear direction is established at the end of the convergence, it should still be viewed as sideways consolidation. During yesterday's decline, the 104K level provided support. If it breaks below 104K again, a downward channel will open, and a rebound will require a rise above the 105K threshold.

When the price approaches the first resistance at 104.8–105K, don’t rush to confirm a breakout; first, observe whether there is sufficient trading volume and stabilization. Given that the market has mostly been in sideways consolidation recently, even if it rises above 105K, it often struggles to maintain upward momentum unless a strong bullish candle effectively breaks through; otherwise, the range-bound mindset remains.

Intraday, 104K can be viewed as a key support level. If this level is lost again, it will trigger short-term selling pressure; if it breaks below 104K, the downside could open up to 103.4K, and the original support level will also turn into a resistance level.

6.20 Master’s Swing Trading Setup:

Long Entry Reference: Accumulate in batches in the 103400-104100 range. Target: 105100-105800

Short Entry Reference: Not applicable for now

If you genuinely want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than jumping to conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they post screenshots of long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the tops and bottoms," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans and community live broadcasts are now available!

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