The Crisis in the Crypto Market Amidst the Escalation of the Israel-Iran Conflict and the Path to Technical Breakthroughs

Fundamentals: The Middle East Conflict Ignites Panic in the Crypto Sphere

1. Conflict Evolution Timeline (June 21 - June 23)

• June 21: Israel launches a second wave of airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, with U.S. bombers planning to intervene in the conflict. Iran retaliates with missiles and drones, causing the regional situation to escalate sharply;

• June 22: The UN Secretary-General issues a warning about the conflict spiraling out of control, while China and Russia urgently call for a ceasefire. The UK and Australia issue high-risk alerts. Iran plans to block the Strait of Hormuz, and its foreign minister travels to Moscow for consultations, prompting the U.S. to state it is "considering military intervention";

• June 23: Airstrikes continue to escalate, with Iran firmly rejecting negotiations, leading to a normalization of regional confrontations.

2. The Crypto Market Faces Four Major Bearish Factors

• Geopolitical Risk Aversion: Tensions in the Middle East heighten global risk aversion, leading to sell-offs in cryptocurrencies as high-risk assets;

• Liquidity Crisis: From June 21-22, the market saw over $1 billion in liquidations, with ETH experiencing an 8.5% flash crash in one hour, and a large number of BTC long contracts being liquidated;

• Transmission Effect from U.S. Stocks: A late plunge in U.S. stocks exacerbates uncertainty in risk assets, with funds flowing into the dollar and U.S. Treasuries for safety;

• Technical Breakdown Resonance: Key support levels for major coins are breached, intensifying panic selling in the market.

Technical Analysis: The Battle for Downward Channels in BTC and ETH

■ BTC: Weekly Breakdown Targeting Strong Support at 9500

• Weekly Level: A significant bearish candle closes after a high, breaking below the 7-day moving average and the key defense level of 10300, with a downward target set at the 9500 dollar level from the previous rally;

• Daily Level: Three consecutive bearish candles decline along the 7-day moving average, with yesterday's volume increasing and forming a long lower shadow. The technical divergence is widening, and a short-term oversold rebound is needed to repair indicators, while the overall trend remains in a downward channel;

• 4-Hour Level: Last night, the U.S. market saw a volume drop to around 9800, with a morning rebound failing to break the short-term downtrend line. The intraday resistance is at 10180-10280 dollars, and support is at 9980-9880 dollars, with a recommendation to focus on short positions.

■ ETH: Breaching 2480 and Targeting the Critical 2000 Line

• Weekly Level: A large bearish candle breaks below the 2480 support level held for nearly a month and a half, targeting 2100, with 2000 becoming a key psychological defense line. A breach will look towards 1800 dollars;

• Daily Level: After three consecutive large volume drops, there are no signs of a bottoming out, and the buying window is unclear, necessitating sideways consolidation to repair the technical indicators. If geopolitical conflicts persist, it may trigger a new round of declines;

• 4-Hour Level: After a volume drop, the market enters a rebound phase, with significant resistance at 2260-2290 dollars above and support at 2190-2160 dollars below, with a strategy favoring short positions.

Altcoin Strategy: Risk Control First, Waiting for Dual Engine Drive in the Second Half of the Year

• Short-Term Observation: For nearly 20 days, there have been continuous reminders to control risks. When the market lacks a profit-making effect, do not chase small rebounds to avoid FOMO emotions leading to passive positions;

• Opportunity Window in the Second Half of the Year: Focus on two major catalytic events — the start of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and the approval of spot ETFs. Currently, it is essential to preserve capital strength and avoid depleting resources in the bottom range to prevent missing good layout opportunities.

Risk Warning: The volatility of the cryptocurrency market is influenced by multiple factors, including geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions. The above analysis is for logical reasoning only and does not constitute operational advice. Investors should make cautious decisions based on their own risk tolerance.

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